Will the Netherlands suffer a catastrophic flooding event before 31st December 2030?
29
129
1k
2030
62%
chance

The Netherlands is facing significant challenges in relation to water management and a changing climate. Although technologies and systems to manage the risks are well established and in place, these mitigations may or may not be sufficient to prevent a catastrophic flooding event.

For the purposes of this market the definition of a catastrophic event is EITHER;

1) €100m or more in directly attributable property damage

2) the directly attributable loss of 10 or more human lives

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Potentially silly question... is this limited to the European territory of the Kingdom?

predicts NO

@BrunoParga Good question, and yes this is only the parts of the Kingdom on the European mainland (the bit below sea level and at risk of flooding)

sold Ṁ53 of NO

it looks like this may have happened in 2021, so more likely than I would have thought at first https://nos.nl/artikel/2447911-extremer-weer-kost-verzekeraars-steeds-meer-geld

@StevenK 100m in damages is a pretty low bar. Hurricane Katrina did around $100b damage, 1000 times more. I'm not betting because I don't have a good intuition for these "small" flooding events.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

define catastrophic?

predicts NO

@StevenK good point, thanks. I've defined this and edited the description

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