The Netherlands is facing significant challenges in relation to water management and a changing climate. Although technologies and systems to manage the risks are well established and in place, these mitigations may or may not be sufficient to prevent a catastrophic flooding event.
For the purposes of this market the definition of a catastrophic event is EITHER;
1) €100m or more in directly attributable property damage
2) the directly attributable loss of 10 or more human lives
1,000People are also trading
This market is remarkably well-calibrated based on base rates
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/hoeveel-schade-deed-de-laatste-E7OXtx34Rn6bDvbvdVxFPw#4
@BrunoParga Good question, and yes this is only the parts of the Kingdom on the European mainland (the bit below sea level and at risk of flooding)
it looks like this may have happened in 2021, so more likely than I would have thought at first https://nos.nl/artikel/2447911-extremer-weer-kost-verzekeraars-steeds-meer-geld
@StevenK 100m in damages is a pretty low bar. Hurricane Katrina did around $100b damage, 1000 times more. I'm not betting because I don't have a good intuition for these "small" flooding events.