Which will be the first before Nov 5th, 2024: Ceasefire or Rafah Ground Invasion?
38
350
875
Nov 6
Ground Invasion77%

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This is two markets in one. Which ever resolves first, wins. N/A if neither by November 5th.


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Prediction Market Title:

"Will a Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas Be Announced by November 5th, 2024?"

Introduction:

The White House has shown cautious optimism regarding the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas, particularly concerning the release of hostages. John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesman, indicated that Hamas's response to the proposed framework for a hostage agreement aligns with the terms discussed over several months. This prediction market will assess the likelihood of a formal ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hamas by the end of November 5th, 2024.

Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:

  1. "Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire"

  2. "Ceasefire Announced Between Israel and Hamas Following Negotiations"

  3. "Ceasefire Agreement Reached Between Israel and Hamas"

  4. "Israel and Hamas Declare Ceasefire After Negotiations"

  5. "Joint Ceasefire Statement Issued by Israel and Hamas Leadership"

Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:

  1. "Talks Between Israel and Hamas Continue With No Ceasefire Agreement Yet" - Indicates ongoing negotiations without a finalized agreement.

  2. "Temporary Truce Between Israel and Hamas for Humanitarian Aid, No Ceasefire Announced" - Describes a truce, not a formal ceasefire.

  3. "Ceasefire Discussions Between Israel and Hamas Show Promise, No Official Announcement" - Talks about potential progress but no actual ceasefire announcement.

  4. "Israel and Hamas Near Agreement, Ceasefire Expected Soon" - Suggests an imminent announcement but does not confirm one has occurred.

  5. "Unofficial Ceasefire Observations Reported, No Formal Agreement Announced by Israel and Hamas" - Refers to observations or informal actions rather than an announced agreement.


    Prediction Market Title:

    "Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th. 2024?"

    Introduction:

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially authorized plans for an offensive in Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, defying a red line set by US President Joe Biden. The plans include measures for the evacuation of civilians, although no specific timeline for the operation has been disclosed. This prediction market evaluates the probability of an official announcement of a ground invasion of Rafah occurring by the end of November 5th.

    Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:

    1. "Israel Announces Ground Invasion of Rafah to Begin Immediately"

    2. "Netanyahu Confirms Major Ground Operation in Rafah is Underway"

    3. "Israeli Forces Engaged In Ground Invasion of Rafah, Says Government"

    4. "Ground Invasion of Rafah Has Begun"

    Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:

    1. "Israel Increases Aerial Surveillance Over Rafah, No Ground Invasion Yet" - Indicates preparation, not an invasion.

    2. "Netanyahu Hints at Future Military Operations in Rafah Without Specifics" - Lacks confirmation of a ground invasion.

    3. "Israeli Military Conducts Drills Near Rafah, No Invasion Planned" - Discusses military activity without confirming an invasion.

    4. "Rafah Residents Prepare for Possible Invasion, Israeli Government Silent" - Speculation by residents, not an official announcement.

    5. "International Pressure Mounts Against Netanyahu's Rafah Plans, No Action Taken" - Focuses on international response, not the initiation of an invasion.

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines

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https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-08/ty-article-live/report-israel-hamas-making-progress-toward-hostage-deal-after-cairo-negotiations/0000018e-bb73-df26-a99e-fb7f5b100000

Israel-Hamas War Day 185 | Netanyahu: Israel Has Set Date for Rafah Operation; White House: Hostage Release Proposal Presented to Hamas

gpt:

Based on the examples and edge cases provided for the resolution of the prediction market titled "Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th, 2024?", the headline "Netanyahu: Israel Has Set Date for Rafah Operation" would not qualify as a "YES" resolution. This headline indicates that a date has been set for an operation in Rafah, but it does not specifically confirm that a ground invasion will take place, nor does it announce the initiation of such an invasion.

According to the criteria for a "YES" resolution, a headline must explicitly announce or confirm that a ground invasion of Rafah is either underway or about to begin immediately. The provided headline, while suggesting preparation for some form of military operation, lacks the specificity regarding the nature of the operation (ground invasion) and does not confirm its commencement. Thus, it more closely aligns with the examples given for a "NO" resolution, where hints or preparations for future military operations are mentioned without specific confirmation of a ground invasion.

https://chat.openai.com/share/ecb3067b-2c10-414e-ba46-29da2ab6bf0f

also:

The headline "White House: Hostage Release Proposal Presented to Hamas" would not qualify as evidence of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by November 5th, 2024, under the prediction market's criteria. This headline refers to a specific aspect of the negotiations (the hostage release proposal) rather than an announcement of a ceasefire agreement. It indicates a step in the negotiation process but does not confirm that a ceasefire has been reached or announced, which is the specific condition outlined in the prediction market's title.

Note the above just for examples only. Haaretz is not a resolution source for this market.


https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1777394935450259543

Senior Hamas Officials have reportedly Denied the Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Proposal that was submitted yesterday by CIA Director William Burns during Negotiations in Cairo.

(sigh)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68754109.amp

I wasn't aware of any protests at this scale before.

@TimothyJohnson5c16

Iran informed the US that it would refrain from responding to the airstrike in which senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders were killed in Damascus if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, Jadeh Iran reported on Sunday.

The news outlet cited an anonymous Arab diplomatic source, saying the source spoke to the news outlet two days ago. The source added that "If America succeeds in containing the situation, it will be a great success for the Biden administration and we can build on that."

Even Iran is joining in ..

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-795866

Please reply or like this comment if you don't wish to extend the market to July 31st. :)

I'm probably going to extend this market to Nov 5th, as I'd like to see it resolve from an experimental point of view.

If you're worried about losses, I can try to make you whole from my bankroll.

@gpt_news_headlines Extended to Nov 5th.

Please reply or like this comment if you wish to extend the market to July 31st.

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