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Prediction Market Title:

"Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th. 2024?"

Introduction:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has officially authorized plans for an offensive in Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, defying a red line set by US President Joe Bi\

den. The plans include measures for the evacuation of civilians, although no specific timeline for the operation has been disclosed. This prediction market evaluates the pr\

obability of an official announcement of a ground invasion of Rafah occurring by the end of November 5th.

Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:

"Israel Announces Ground Invasion of Rafah to Begin Immediately"

"Netanyahu Confirms Major Ground Operation in Rafah is Underway"

"Israeli Forces Engaged In Ground Invasion of Rafah, Says Government"

"Ground Invasion of Rafah Has Begun"

Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:

"Israel Increases Aerial Surveillance Over Rafah, No Ground Invasion Yet" - Indicates preparation, not an invasion.

"Netanyahu Hints at Future Military Operations in Rafah Without Specifics" - Lacks confirmation of a ground invasion.

"Israeli Military Conducts Drills Near Rafah, No Invasion Planned" - Discusses military activity without confirming an invasion.

"Rafah Residents Prepare for Possible Invasion, Israeli Government Silent" - Speculation by residents, not an official announcement.

"International Pressure Mounts Against Netanyahu's Rafah Plans, No Action Taken" - Focuses on international response, not the initiation of an invasion.

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

Live Updates: Israeli Tanks Enter Rafah and Take Control of Border Crossing

A military official said the scope of the operation was limited and aimed at destroying Hamas targets. The United Nations warned that the crossing’s closure could worsen th\

e humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

File Edit Options Buffers Tools Python Help

import openai

import requests

import json

import os

import shutil

# Set up the OpenAI API

openai.api_key = '..'

def get_response(prompt):

response = openai.ChatCompletion.create(

model="gpt-4",

messages=[

{"role": "user", "content": prompt},

],

seed=0,

max_tokens=2048,

temperature=0,

)

return response.choices[0]['message']['content']

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

"Yes, this headline would qualify for a YES resolution. The headline clearly states that Israeli tanks have entered Rafah, indicating a ground invasion. The mention of the \

operation's aim and the closure of the border crossing further confirm the initiation of a ground invasion."

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

"Yes, this headline would qualify for a YES resolution. It clearly states that Israeli tanks have entered Rafah, indicating a ground invasion. The mention of the operation'\

s aim and the closure of the border crossing further confirm the initiation of a ground invasion."

>>> qoai.get_response(open("tst.txt").read())

"Yes, this headline would qualify for a YES resolution. The headline clearly states that Israeli tanks have entered Rafah, indicating a ground invasion. The mention of the \

operation's aim and the closure of the border crossing further confirm the initiation of a ground invasion."

>>>

@traders resolving

The headline "Live Updates: Israeli Tanks Enter Rafah and Take Control of Border Crossing" would likely qualify as a "YES" resolution for the prediction market. The headline clearly states that Israeli tanks have entered Rafah and taken control of a strategic point, which implies an active military engagement typical of a ground invasion. Even though the article notes the operation is "limited and aimed at destroying Hamas targets," the key aspect of a ground invasion — Israeli forces actively entering and operating within Rafah — is confirmed by the headline.

@gpt_news_headlines

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/07/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah

Live Updates: Israeli Tanks Enter Rafah and Take Control of Border Crossing

A military official said the scope of the operation was limited and aimed at destroying Hamas targets. The United Nations warned that the crossing’s closure could worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

@gpt_news_headlines

@gpt_news_headlines This sounds like it might just as well be a targeted special ops to seize the border crossing, and not an invasion.

Forign military having boots on the ground somewhere doesn't always equate to an invasion.

@GazDownright Going to hide this discussion for now as I don't think it's adding much to the market. If you'd like to talk about this further, please Message me! Happy to chat at length.

Just FYI, this is based on MSM reporting a ground invasion. Mention of ground forces (tanks, troops) in the headline or lead paragraph are likely required.

Seeing everything from Hamas accepting the ceasefire Israel last proposed to Israel has already started the invasion with tanks crossing the border. Interesting fog of war.

@riverwalk3

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/wrapup1-israel-begins-evacuating-part-rafah-ahead-threatened-assault-2024-05-06/

The headline "Israel plays down Hamas move on Gaza ceasefire, hits Rafah" does not qualify as a YES resolution for the prediction market titled "Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th, 2024?" The headline focuses on a potential ceasefire and ongoing strikes, rather than announcing an official ground invasion of Rafah. It also discusses Israel playing down the likelihood of a ceasefire, not confirming an initiation of a ground invasion.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-08/ty-article-live/report-israel-hamas-making-progress-toward-hostage-deal-after-cairo-negotiations/0000018e-bb73-df26-a99e-fb7f5b100000

Israel-Hamas War Day 185 | Netanyahu: Israel Has Set Date for Rafah Operation; White House: Hostage Release Proposal Presented to Hamas

gpt:

Based on the examples and edge cases provided for the resolution of the prediction market titled "Will a Ground Invasion of Rafah Be Announced by November 5th, 2024?", the headline "Netanyahu: Israel Has Set Date for Rafah Operation" would not qualify as a "YES" resolution. This headline indicates that a date has been set for an operation in Rafah, but it does not specifically confirm that a ground invasion will take place, nor does it announce the initiation of such an invasion.

According to the criteria for a "YES" resolution, a headline must explicitly announce or confirm that a ground invasion of Rafah is either underway or about to begin immediately. The provided headline, while suggesting preparation for some form of military operation, lacks the specificity regarding the nature of the operation (ground invasion) and does not confirm its commencement. Thus, it more closely aligns with the examples given for a "NO" resolution, where hints or preparations for future military operations are mentioned without specific confirmation of a ground invasion.

https://chat.openai.com/share/ecb3067b-2c10-414e-ba46-29da2ab6bf0f

also:

The headline "White House: Hostage Release Proposal Presented to Hamas" would not qualify as evidence of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by November 5th, 2024, under the prediction market's criteria. This headline refers to a specific aspect of the negotiations (the hostage release proposal) rather than an announcement of a ceasefire agreement. It indicates a step in the negotiation process but does not confirm that a ceasefire has been reached or announced, which is the specific condition outlined in the prediction market's title.

Note the above just for examples only. Haaretz is not a resolution source for this market.


https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1777394935450259543

Senior Hamas Officials have reportedly Denied the Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Proposal that was submitted yesterday by CIA Director William Burns during Negotiations in Cairo.

(sigh)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68754109.amp

I wasn't aware of any protests at this scale before.

@TimothyJohnson5c16

Iran informed the US that it would refrain from responding to the airstrike in which senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders were killed in Damascus if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, Jadeh Iran reported on Sunday.

The news outlet cited an anonymous Arab diplomatic source, saying the source spoke to the news outlet two days ago. The source added that "If America succeeds in containing the situation, it will be a great success for the Biden administration and we can build on that."

Even Iran is joining in ..

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-795866

Please reply or like this comment if you don't wish to extend the market to July 31st. :)

I'm probably going to extend this market to Nov 5th, as I'd like to see it resolve from an experimental point of view.

If you're worried about losses, I can try to make you whole from my bankroll.

@gpt_news_headlines Extended to Nov 5th.