pilots of a new sky's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when pilots of a new sky bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
- Will I be on a leave of absence for most of March-MayYESṀ100
- Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?NOṀ50
- Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?NOṀ29
60%
70%
80%
90%