Will I get a 4th COVID vaccine before the end of August 2022?
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100Ṁ324resolved Dec 28
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I am a mid-20's male who lives in the United States. I got the first three vaccines in Feb, March, and November 2021. I intend to get a 4th vaccine approximately as soon as it is allowed and convenient, and I am convinced my risks from the vaccine (Myocarditis, unknown long-term risks, etc.,) are less than my risk (or the risk to the people I interact with) from the disease by enough to be worth the expected side-effects (a day or two of flu-like symptoms from the 2nd and 3rd vaccines).
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Your screen name is literally Bayesian Philosopher. I mean, when you put all of those Bayesian-sounding factors out there, it makes it sound like a yes, with each factor seemingly compounding the yes. However, the base rate of being a mid-20's male who lives in the US puts the overall Bayesian probability lower. However the fact that you are the type of person who would even use Manifold Markets puts your base rate maybe much higher, so I'm going with yes.