Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 75% for at least 12 hours?
29
100Ṁ27k
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
NO
Feb 16, 7:31pm: It does not have to be contiguous 12 hours. Feb 19, 4:57pm: We've reached 12 hours under 25%! Feb 19, 4:58pm: @Robert McIntyre Iarted at 0.7 would say the 75% countdown starts only after the 25% countdown ends. But in this case it doesn't matter because the market started at 74.99999999999999% thanks to floatingpointiness. Feb 19, 6:00pm: I would* Feb 20, 2:03pm: If the conditions are not satisfied by the time the market closes, the market resolves NO. It doesn't matter if the market is above or below 75% at that time. Feb 22, 12:35am: I accidentally resolved this market when I meant to resolve one of my other markets :( Please vote on https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-fucked-up-and-resolved-the-wrong
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AAAAAAaaaaa. SORRY. I WAS IN THE WRONG TAB D:
@ValentinManes There is a time bound. The market closes in 76 hours.
@RobertMcIntyre Yes, it is in phases and the first phase is over. I replied to you in the description, but you probably didn't see it.
If there is no time bound, and since we are already in phase 2, I don't see how it could not happen. Unless we have people doing "suicide bets" we will only have "buy yes" from now.
We have had an extra nearly two hours at 24% since the last update when there were eight minutes to go on phase 1. I'm confident we're in phase 2 now.
@Gurkenglas I mean I'm actually confused about whether this market has "phases" and if so whether we're in the second phase or still in the first. That seems pretty important!
Nice try, Mr. Robert "I have 910 M$ on NO and I would really like the prices to be like they were 17 minutes before I looked" McIntyre >:)
uh, bought and sold 240 NO, i mean.
If my calculations are correct, the first condition has been reached by the guy who bought and sold 250 NO and then bought 500 YES. Of course.
Clarification: do the 12 hours of belief being above 75% only begin counting down AFTER the 12 non-contiguous hours of being below 25% have completed? That is, if the market goes above 75% now, none of the time it’s in that state will “count”?
Hasn't changed since my last comment.
What are the current times?
11 hours 52 minutes 55 seconds
We are currently at 9 hours and ~3 minutes.
this feels vaguely defect-y, but oh well
We're currently at about 5 hours and 30 mintues.
Love this question!
I'll be using the data from `JSON.parse(document.getElementById('__NEXT_DATA__').text).props.pageProps.bets` to get more sig-figs (unless I find a better way). For example this transaction brought the price down to 0.2546... which is not low enough.
... And the fist timer has started! (about 20 minutes ago) A positive resolution is getting more likely every minute!

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