Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

2.7kṀ21k

2028

ALL

14%

Starship reaches space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028

82%

Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028

1.9%

Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028

1.7%

Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028

This is a "market for markets".

Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.

The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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9 Comments

31 Holders

164 Trades

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Is it possible to resolve parts of a multi-market?

@Mqrius I don't think so, not this type.

@calderknight asked on discord. You're right for now.

/FlorisvanDoorn/when-will-manifold-markets-allow-us

There is a clear arbitrage with sub-markets. I bought YES for the 2 "starship in space in 2023" here and NO for the linked market, securing 114M with 91M cost

@0482 other opportunities

https://manifold.markets/jack/israelhezbollah-conflict-killing-40

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/bitcoin-etf-2023-x-new-alltime-high

https://manifold.markets/metacontrarian/will-gemini-be-released-before-2024

@calderknight really feel tempted to write a bot to take advantage of those cases

@0482 Please do!

If your bot can also take advantage of more complex things, I'll pay a (currently fairly small) bounty for it: https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/arb-bots-for-confident-markets

@0482 If you do this, I will managram you 5000 from the tournament account to run the bot through December (in addition to whatever bounty you get from @EvanDaniel).