Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
36
2.7kṀ21k2028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
14%
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028
82%
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028
1.9%
Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND A human lands on the Moon by 2028
1.7%
Starship does not reach space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028
This is a "market for markets".
Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.
The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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