Will Gemini be released before 2024? x Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
Will Gemini be released before 2024? x Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
50
3.6kṀ57kresolved Jan 7
100%98%
Gemini released before 2024 AND GPT-5 not released before 2025
1.7%
Gemini released before 2024 AND GPT-5 released before 2025
0.4%
Gemini not released before 2024 AND GPT-5 released before 2025
0.4%
Gemini not released before 2024 AND GPT-5 not released before 2025
This is a conditional derivative market for these two markets:
It will resolve exactly according to the resolution of those two markets.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@metacontrarian could we get a confirmation for this market that Gemini is considered "released"? There have been some surprising rulings in a few other markets.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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