The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.
The chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions
By the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.
It does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).
Related questions
This other market would suggest 7%. Resolution criteria seem the same. So, one of these two markets is priced quite badly.
Before 2025:
/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l
/TimP/how-many-fortnights-after-01012023
Before 2026:
/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land
/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45
/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human
/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on
Before 2027:
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033
/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the
/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be
Before 2028:
/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20
/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor
2028 or later:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504
Multiple choice:
At 55%, this seems very optimistic. The Artemis 3 timeline itself is unrealistic and I wouldn't use it as an anchor at all. I still expect Artemis 3 to be the next boots on the moon though.
Eric Berger's source estimates 2028 at the earliest. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/
Even in the hypothetical world where you go with better architectures than the whole SLS and NRHO Gateway detour, and everything goes better than expected, I wouldn't expect it until 2027.
China doesn't seem to have any plans before 2030. https://spacenews.com/chinese-crewed-moon-landing-possible-by-2030-says-senior-space-figure/