How will trading volume be affected by fees and loan changes
#Mana#Pivot Predictions
9
131
Ṁ800
Apr 23
3%
< 0.05
4%
0.05 to 0.1
10%
0.1 to 0.25
18%
0.25 to 0.5
43%
0.5 to 1.0
14%
1.0 to 2.0
5%
2.0 to 4.0
4%
> 4

What will the trading volume ratio (defined below) be? This is meant to capture the effect of fees and loan changes (and other pivot related changes) on trading volumes.

Volume: defined as the sum over markets of
min(YES's bought + NO's sold, NO's bought + YES's sold)

  • taking the minimum seems appropriate, because it cuts out AMM milking. (open to other suggestions)

  • excluding unranked markets

  • only including binary / multibinary markets (i'm not familiar with linked and numeric markets / dont' know if this question is well formulated for them)

Measurement period: May 10, 2024 to June 10, 2024, UTC

Baseline period: Jan 10, 2024 to April 10, 2024, UTC

trading volume ratio = (volume in measurement period / seconds in measurement period) / (volume in baseline period / seconds in baseline period)

If fees or loan changes are delayed, I may delay the measurement period. If they are delayed indefinitely / more than a few months, I may N/A. However, no N/A if fee amounts are changed.

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@omou resolve this? or N/A it?

closed to halt trading, because unclear how to resolve in light of mana devaluation

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