What will be the next change to the Manifold Loan scheme?
closes Jan 1
Loan rate Increased from 4%
Loan rate decreased from 4%
Loan payout frequency increased
Loan payout frequency decreased
Credit ratings/account based loan rate
Loan repayment change
Per market loan payout calculation change (cost basis, current value, sum of bets, etc.)

Minor bug fixes don't count, the change must affect incentives/betting strategy to resolve this market. Possibly resolves to PROB if multiple answers are deployed in one change.

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SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Grayson

What is the current Manifold Loan scheme?

Is this an official thing or a community thing that’s passed me by?

2 replies
SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Grayson

@SimonGrayson Wait, I’m an idiot.

I’ve just realised you mean the way we get Mana back from the markets we’re invested in…

brubsby avatar

@SimonGrayson "scheme" could maybe be "structure" here basically you get 4% of your invested mana back every day yeah. just that and the exact algorithm used.

Eliza avatar
Elizabought Ṁ10 of Per market loan payo... YES

Can you help clarify some stuff about how you plan to resolve if two options happen on the same day. Like:

  • Resolve based on which one was added to GitHub first

  • Resolve based on which one's effects are visible first to users of the site

  • Split resolution evenly between all options that happen in the same [commit, day, whatever]

4 replies
brubsby avatar

I think I'll say here if two options happen between loan payouts it counts as happening at the same time, because I don't really care about the status of the code on the github, just the reality of the incentives. I realize this could technically be in conflict if the change was like, purely in the payback mechanism, but multiple changes happening between the 3am (or whenever) loan payments seems appropriate to be labeled as one change.

brubsby avatar

this would mean that if a change is made and then rolled back before the next loan payout, it doesn't close this market (even if it's not a change to the payout mechanism). also, if a NO LOAN DAY happens accidentally due to a bug again, then this market doesn't resolve, because that's just transient noise, when this market is about informing future strategy.

Eliza avatar

@brubsby Thanks for the follow-up, those were the exact two next points I was going to ask about. So:

1. Has to be an intentional change
2. Has to be left in place long enough for the effect to be seen
3. If more than one option happens in a very short time window, they'll probably get equal resolution weight. Even if one of the changes is visible in some fashion before the other one ("not exactly simultaneous")

brubsby avatar

pretty much yeah.
but for 1. if someone managed to accidentally (and significantly) change the loan percentage or calculation when trying to do a bug fix, but then decided to leave the new calculation in place either through permanent inaction or post hoc rationalization, I'd still count it as resolving this question. so I don't think intention is strictly required. I just wanted to protect against someone going "there was a no loan day (due to a bug), this could be construed as a change", when it is something I do not fundamentally care about here. this market is mostly for predicting the future of the loan system's mechanics.

brubsby avatar
brubsbybought Ṁ5 of Per market loan payo... YES

ideally this would be a free response, but i didn't want to have to close it early and/or deal with people trying to specificity snipe exact changes after they're made. I'm not really sure what else they could do that would actually trigger "Other" here, so feel free to suggest things and I can add them or direct you to the bucket to bet in.

1 reply
brubsby avatar

complete removal of loans would technically be "loan rate decreased from 4%" lol. making people pay interest would technically be a "Loan repayment change"