What will be the trading volume of this market at close?
Basic
29
93k
Sep 15
44%
2^19 = M524,288
39%
2^18 = M262,144
12%
2^17 = M131,072
4%
2^20 = M1,048,576

Resolves to the market's trading volume as the linear interpolation of nearest surrounding entries. New entries will be added as necessary by doubling the largest. No other answers will be added(or if accidentally added, will be invalid and ignored).

The Projected Close Time is initially 2024-05-31 11:59:59 PST. A Breakpoint is each numerical answer on the table. Whenever the trading volume exceeds a breakpoint, the Projected Close Time should be extended by 7 days. Whenever the market closes, the projected close time is extended by one day for each new breakpoint exceeded since the last time the market closed(Bonus Extension), and the close time should be extended to the projected close time. Market creator is allowed to extend the close time to the projected close time at any time. If the market closes and should not be extended, it resolves to the trading volume.

Trading volume is the "Total volume" number that shows in the UI on the website. If the number is not visible on the UI, an API estimate may be used as backup. If the trading volume changes after closing, the first such number noted by the market resolver in a comment is used.

Example:

• No trading activity on the market. It resolves 100% 0.

• Just before closing, a whale puts M100k on NO 0, creating M100k of trading volume. This exceeds 14 breakpoints. The projected close time is extended by 98 days as soon as the order is filled. When the market closes, it is further extended by 14 days to 112 days net. Market creator or a moderator should reopen the market when they next notice to September 20, 2024. No further activity happens, so the market resolves to (65536*2 - 100000) / 65536 = 47% M65,536 and 53% M131,072.

Market state:

• Last breakpoint achieved: M65536 (7 days*14 breakpoints)

• Last breakpoint credited to the bonus pool: M1024 (8 days)

• Projected Close Time: +106 days = 2024-09-14

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

## Related questions

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sold Ṁ6 2^19 = M524,288 YES

Oh... Can we confirm that this will stay a Mini market, or are we in danger of this being upgraded at some point?

Anyone can add as much liquidity as they want.

reposted

I've added a bunch of new volume options since we maxed out the initial batch.

I added new ones as placeholders first so I could set the initial prices while preventing a potential trading frenzy. You're free to trade on them now though.

Wow... Seems like overkill after the first billion?

What is happening?

bought Ṁ1 2^22 = M4,194,304 YES

Oh okay, I see, they were placeholders lol... I was flummoxed

gg

bought Ṁ1 2^17 = M131,072 YES

I'm so confused by what happened on this market in the last 24 hours lol

bought Ṁ100 M8192 NO

Passed 8192

bought Ṁ1 M8192 YES

time for another extension @Mira @Mira_

Passed 4096

@Mira Should be extended, we've passed 2048 a while ago

I am probably just being thick but is it always an extra 8 days for each breakpoint passed?
Or is it sometime 7 and sometimes 8 depending whether market closes before it is updated?

So after passing 1024 and the date set at end of Aug 3 and now 2 more breakpoints passed is the new projected date 16 days later ie 19 Aug or some different date?

reposted

Since the market closed with 8 breakpoints exceeded, I have extended the close time by (7*8 + 8) days.

reposted

Everyone come: I need expert predictions on the trading volume from brilliant forecasters like yourself.

bought Ṁ3 M32768 YES