What will be the trading volume of this market at close?
9
64
475
Jun 1
45%
Other
20%
M65536
16%
M32768
10%
M16384
3%
M8192

Resolves to the market's trading volume as the linear interpolation of nearest surrounding entries. New entries will be added as necessary by doubling the largest. No other answers will be added(or if accidentally added, will be invalid and ignored).

The Projected Close Time is initially 2024-05-31 11:59:59 PST. A Breakpoint is each numerical answer on the table. Whenever the trading volume exceeds a breakpoint, the Projected Close Time should be extended by 7 days. Whenever the market closes, the projected close time is extended by one day for each new breakpoint exceeded since the last time the market closed(Bonus Extension), and the close time should be extended to the projected close time. Market creator is allowed to extend the close time to the projected close time at any time. If the market closes and should not be extended, it resolves to the trading volume.

Trading volume is the "Total volume" number that shows in the UI on the website. If the number is not visible on the UI, an API estimate may be used as backup. If the trading volume changes after closing, the first such number noted by the market resolver in a comment is used.

Example:

  • No trading activity on the market. It resolves 100% 0.

  • Just before closing, a whale puts M100k on NO 0, creating M100k of trading volume. This exceeds 14 breakpoints. The projected close time is extended by 98 days as soon as the order is filled. When the market closes, it is further extended by 14 days to 112 days net. Market creator or a moderator should reopen the market when they next notice to September 20, 2024. No further activity happens, so the market resolves to (65536*2 - 100000) / 65536 = 47% M65,536 and 53% M131,072.

Market state:

  • Last breakpoint achieved: N/A

  • Last breakpoint credited to the bonus pool: N/A

  • Projected Close Time: +0 days = 2024-05-31

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Everyone come: I need expert predictions on the trading volume from brilliant forecasters like yourself.

bought Ṁ3 M32768 YES

@Mira_ will you add breakpoints?