oerpli's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.49
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when oerpli bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
60%
70%
- Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: NotificationsNOṀ100
- Will Richard Hanania publish at least one article in The Washington Post, The New York Times, or The Wall Street Journal in 2022?NOṀ50
- Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 38% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?YESṀ30
80%
90%