Will the James Webb Space Telescope send an image by March 1st, 2022?
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resolved Feb 13
Resolved
YES
The James Webb Space Telescope plans to send its first image 33 days after launch. Will it send the first image by March 1st, 2022? Jan 9, 11:22am: #JamesWebb #space
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bought Ṁ1 of YES
I believe you are correct -- the 33 day activity matches the mission plans and that is what is referred to in the description. Moreover, the 44 day activity looks like it might still fall short of what I was expecting for a YES resolution, even if it happens on time-line, which would push the next benchmark outside the closing date; since this was a market about keeping timeline, not exceeding it, I am now resolving this to YES.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I'm confused now what this market is looking for. @Duncan from your initial comment I thought the day-33 activity would count for resolution. It matches the timeline I see here, for instance https://jwst.arizona.edu/mission which also says "science-quality" images won't be taken until the end of the 3rd month after launch. By the way it did take a somewhat clear photo of itself. See the last photo at https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2022/02/11/photons-received-webb-sees-its-first-star-18-times/
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I think it's unlikely that NASA won't keep everyone very informed, but I will delay resolving the market if I think that there is relevant information forthcoming; if anyone has strong feelings on this, now is a good time to suggest contingency plans.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
@Duncan how would it be resolved if nasa doesn't post any updates on the current phase at any time before march? how would we know the state/phase of JWST mirror alignment at market closure?
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Currently they have passed photons through the system, but gotten a series of uncoordinated and unfocused points. I don't believe that that can be called an image. At a minimum, the mirrors will have to be aligned to focus the image into a single point. I believe that the image stacking phase meets this criteria, but I'm happy to hear arguments for other benchmarks.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
According to this the planned "images" have been transmitted. https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2022/02/03/photons-incoming-webb-team-begins-aligning-the-telescope/
bought Ṁ1 of NO
@Duncan By "send an image", do you mean a publicly released image by NASA, ESA or any JWST partners?

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