Will Dr. P's question about Trump being president by Feb. 28, 2022 be resolved accurately?
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https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president seems like it has a high chance of being cited as a motivation for adding reputation system for market makers. Will Dr. P surprise me and resolve accurately?
Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022.
#meta #hedge
Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm
Mar 7, 8:14am: It is Mar. 7 and Dr P's question remains unresolved. Resolving NO per initial description. I'm a little disappointed that Dr P didn't return to argue that the last election was illegitimate and therefore Trump is still president. Also curious if I will ever see my funds returned from that market.
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If Dr P's question was guaranteed to resolve to YES/NO this would be an arbitrage opportunity — buy YES here and YES in the other market. The problem is if Dr P doesn't resolve (possible, his last comment — "now facking pamp it" — was a month ago), you're out there AND here, since this market resolves to NO in that case. I think that accounts for the surface level arbitrage opportunity. Taking my loss now.
Added this to https://manifold.markets/fold/fraud since this is fundamentally about a question of markets being resolved accurately and honestly.
@AnonymousAnonymous From the description: "Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022." I hadn't considered PROB/NA... my instinct is that I'd resolve NO in those cases without some incredibly implausible situation developing in the next few weeks.
@Adam Hey, unlike Dr P my real name is on this thing!
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