Will Dr. P's question about Trump being president by Feb. 28, 2022 be resolved accurately?
89
100Ṁ28k
resolved Mar 7
Resolved
NO
https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president seems like it has a high chance of being cited as a motivation for adding reputation system for market makers. Will Dr. P surprise me and resolve accurately? Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022. #meta #hedge Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm Mar 7, 8:14am: It is Mar. 7 and Dr P's question remains unresolved. Resolving NO per initial description. I'm a little disappointed that Dr P didn't return to argue that the last election was illegitimate and therefore Trump is still president. Also curious if I will ever see my funds returned from that market.
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predictedNO
@DrP Clearly a gentleman and a scholar; I'm sorry I doubted you.
Get rekt!
Noot following the discussion on discord about potential mod intervention, but I don't think the other question will resolve by March 7
Yeah; the other thing that the "arbitrage" analysis misses is the possibility that Raven defects, which isn't huge but is non-trivial.
If Dr P's question was guaranteed to resolve to YES/NO this would be an arbitrage opportunity — buy YES here and YES in the other market. The problem is if Dr P doesn't resolve (possible, his last comment — "now facking pamp it" — was a month ago), you're out there AND here, since this market resolves to NO in that case. I think that accounts for the surface level arbitrage opportunity. Taking my loss now.
Could you change the close date to just before Dr P's close date?
Added this to https://manifold.markets/fold/fraud since this is fundamentally about a question of markets being resolved accurately and honestly.
Also reducing the opportunity for arbitrage.
@AnonymousAnonymous From the description: "Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022." I hadn't considered PROB/NA... my instinct is that I'd resolve NO in those cases without some incredibly implausible situation developing in the next few weeks. @Adam Hey, unlike Dr P my real name is on this thing!
@Angola, I'm in the same boat as you, but what if Raven resolves dishonestly? :P
Bought 90 of YES on this and 10 of YES on the original question for a total of 100 invested - profit will be 11 if question resolves dishonestly, and 17 if it resolves honestly (assuming, obviously, that DJT doesn't somehow become president in less than a fortnight).
Would Dr P resolving as PROB/NA) or not resolving (for sufficiently long) cause this market to resolve NO?
This market was mentioned in the comments at ACX - I'll be putting that on my business cards!
hmm. i'm not he'll actually resolve it.
My first arbitraging attempt For correct resolution: + $103 + 27 | for this market - $30 + $0 | Dr. P's market For Inaccurate resolution: - $103 | for this market + $30 + $182 | dr. p's market
I messed up the arbitrage. This version should pay out 68 if honest no, and 134 if dishonest yes, for a net of 1 or 67.
More arbitrage. Should net me 67. (Payout 134 or 135 for either result)
Yeah let's arbitrage this 💪 if he resolves yes, I get 77 + 0 if he resolves no, I get 0 + 61 I've invested 60 in total, so I will always win :)
Trying to arbitrage this market and Dr P's

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