Will Dr. P's question about Trump being president by Feb. 28, 2022 be resolved accurately?
https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-trump-by-the-president seems like it has a high chance of being cited as a motivation for adding reputation system for market makers. Will Dr. P surprise me and resolve accurately? Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022. #meta #hedge Close date updated to 2022-02-27 11:59 pm Mar 7, 8:14am: It is Mar. 7 and Dr P's question remains unresolved. Resolving NO per initial description. I'm a little disappointed that Dr P didn't return to argue that the last election was illegitimate and therefore Trump is still president. Also curious if I will ever see my funds returned from that market.
If Dr P's question was guaranteed to resolve to YES/NO this would be an arbitrage opportunity — buy YES here and YES in the other market. The problem is if Dr P doesn't resolve (possible, his last comment — "now facking pamp it" — was a month ago), you're out there AND here, since this market resolves to NO in that case. I think that accounts for the surface level arbitrage opportunity. Taking my loss now.
@AnonymousAnonymous From the description: "Also resolves NO if the question remains unresolved on Mar. 7, 2022." I hadn't considered PROB/NA... my instinct is that I'd resolve NO in those cases without some incredibly implausible situation developing in the next few weeks. @Adam Hey, unlike Dr P my real name is on this thing!
Bought 90 of YES on this and 10 of YES on the original question for a total of 100 invested - profit will be 11 if question resolves dishonestly, and 17 if it resolves honestly (assuming, obviously, that DJT doesn't somehow become president in less than a fortnight).