Resolves YES if Nepo wins, NO if Ding Liren wins.
(Resolves N/A if for whatever reason the championship is not between Nepomniachtchi and Ding)
Close date updated to 2023-05-01 11:59 pm
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@MP Basically Ding is more likely to win game 14 because he has white, but if it's a draw Nepo probably has a slight edge because he's good at rapid and blitz. And the hivemind has decided those factors combine to 45% for Nepo
@BrendanFinan Some of Ding's prep was found on Lichess after game 8: https://old.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/12ssian/investigation_might_have_found_ding_and_rapports/
@MP That appears to be correct, but a few months ago it was the way around. It looks like Ding's rating dropped because of a poor performance in the 2023 Tata Steel tournament. I think I'd argue the rating comparison between the two is pretty much a wash
Per their Wikipedia pages, Ding Liren's Elo rating is 16 points higher. Using the Elo calculator at https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#rating1=2792&rating2=2808&best_of=14, a best of 14 would be Nepo: 0.32, Liren: 0.52, draw: 0.16. Assuming the tiebreak games would work out 50/50, that's 60% Ding, 40% Nepo.
Nepo has a winning record against Ding Liren https://2700chess.com/games?s%5Bwhite_player%5D=Ding%2C+Liren&s%5Bblack_player%5D=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&s%5Bignore_color%5D=0&s%5Bignore_color%5D=1&s%5Bfrom_date%5D=2019
A naive calculation from their Elo gives a 52% chance of Ding winning, plus 16% chance of draw, in a best of 14. If it goes to a draw, then Ding has an even greater advantage in the rapid section, though exact details of that have not been disclosed.
I think the correct odds here are something like 35-40% chance of Nepo winning.