Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be the 2023 World Chess Champion?

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resolved Apr 30

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Resolves YES if Nepo wins, NO if Ding Liren wins.

(Resolves N/A if for whatever reason the championship is not between Nepomniachtchi and Ding)

Close date updated to 2023-05-01 11:59 pm

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25 Comments

144 Holders

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bought Ṁ0 of NO

https://www.chess.com/news/view/fide-world-chess-championship-2023-tiebreak-ding-liren

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@AndrewG this should resolve to NO

predicted YES

Why are people shorting this one to below 50%?

predicted NO

@MP Nepo has black for the last classical game

predicted YES

@archvenison they will draw

predicted NO

@MP Basically Ding is more likely to win game 14 because he has white, but if it's a draw Nepo probably has a slight edge because he's good at rapid and blitz. And the hivemind has decided those factors combine to 45% for Nepo

predicted YES

bought Ṁ50 of YES

The leak increases nepos chances by roughly ~5% imo

@kottsiek the leak?

predicted NO

@BrendanFinan Some of Ding's prep was found on Lichess after game 8: https://old.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/12ssian/investigation_might_have_found_ding_and_rapports/

predicted YES

Other chess markets

sold Ṁ645 of YES

The weekly chart is so funny right now

@MP Been dutifully holding onto my Ding stock and it has been such an emotional wild ride

bought Ṁ25 of NO

The series is now tied and a naive ELO calculation still favors Ding.

predicted YES

@jeremiahsamroo how? Ian has a higher elo

predicted NO

@MP That appears to be correct, but a few months ago it was the way around. It looks like Ding's rating dropped because of a poor performance in the 2023 Tata Steel tournament. I think I'd argue the rating comparison between the two is pretty much a wash

predicted NO

@MP yeah ur right. I thought Ding was still at 2811 mb

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Ding has 20min to make 20 moves. It's over

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Let's see how things will go today. Ian seems to be way more prepared mentally, perhaps being crushed by Magnus helped him to lose his World Chess Championship virginity

Per their Wikipedia pages, Ding Liren's Elo rating is 16 points higher. Using the Elo calculator at https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#rating1=2792&rating2=2808&best_of=14, a best of 14 would be Nepo: 0.32, Liren: 0.52, draw: 0.16. Assuming the tiebreak games would work out 50/50, that's 60% Ding, 40% Nepo.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Nepo has a winning record against Ding Liren https://2700chess.com/games?s%5Bwhite_player%5D=Ding%2C+Liren&s%5Bblack_player%5D=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&s%5Bignore_color%5D=0&s%5Bignore_color%5D=1&s%5Bfrom_date%5D=2019

bought Ṁ58 of YES

I think Ben bet a bit more than he intended

bought Ṁ200 of NO

A naive calculation from their Elo gives a 52% chance of Ding winning, plus 16% chance of draw, in a best of 14. If it goes to a draw, then Ding has an even greater advantage in the rapid section, though exact details of that have not been disclosed.

I think the correct odds here are something like 35-40% chance of Nepo winning.