Will at least ten users trade on this market within the next week?
28
13
resolved Feb 10
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to "YES" if, by 11:59 PM at February 14, 2022 PST, at least ten separate users have traded on this market. I think this site is cool, so I wanted to do a prediction market, and this seems like one whose dynamics are kind of interesting! If I do another market it'll probably be about a real thing though. Feb 9, 5:50pm: I probably should've resolved this yesterday, but it's now pretty clear that even if you just count people who comment, over ten people have traded on this market. So I'm resolving it! This was fun. No idea why someone bought M$1000 of no! I think it's kind of funny. However...I'm not exactly sure how Manifold Markets' algorithm works, and I recognize there are complicated delicate balances of incentives to stop the system from being exploitable, but I just lost M$36 for creating this market, and would've gained money for incorrectly resolving it as "no." I think this provides a perverse incentive for resolving markets wrong / not creating markets. Feb 9, 6:14pm: Actually, maybe I did gain currency?
Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
easy pickup!
bought Ṁ37 of YES
Quick, resolve yes before that one guy sells all his 'no'!
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
yeah sure i’ll go all in on yes why not
bought Ṁ250 of YES
Taking out a mortgage on my house, lets gooo!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I am now at least user 9; any new person can guarantee YES
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Adding a comment!
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Seems odds have been skewed because of the one trader who bout $1000 no an hour ago.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Whoops, forgot to comment on my last trade. Just want to ensure I register as a unique/separate trader!
bought Ṁ25 of YES
Nice growth hacking :D I like to imagine the sprint to buy NO contracts right before resolution, and the weird game theory there.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
I think I'm actually #4, because Conflux doesn't count.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
User #4 checking in!
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Note: you can directly add tags to any market now! On the market page below the graph, click "Show tags".
bought Ṁ1 of YES
(Hint to people bidding 'yes'; we can definitely count if you comment!) You might also want to add the tags #meta #fun and #shortterm to the description, to help users find the market.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Can you tell that's it's ten seperate users, rather than just ten seperate bets?