Will Russia enter Kiev by March 31st, 2022?
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100Ṁ14kresolved Feb 26
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This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before March 31st, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.
Feb 23, 11:09pm: I'll wait to confirm, but supposedly airborne troops have landed in Kyiv.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The NYT very clearly says that “Russian forces entered Kyiv”: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
I'm going to go ahead and be contrarian here, the payout is 50X on a no.
So what is the definition of Kiev? The city of Kiev? Have Russian troops actually entered Kiev the city?
Here we see from this article that troops have entered, "Kiev suburbs," which is not the same as Kiev.
https://www.ft.com/content/c48390ea-37b0-4bfa-b3af-4c8ccbf01b88
Look on Google maps to see that the boundaries of Kiev do not extend up to the airport:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kyiv+City,+Kyiv,+Ukraine,+02000/@50.4021367,30.2525007,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d4cf4ee15a4505:0x791cf95e33bc0172!8m2!3d50.4501!4d30.5234
Of course this could go the other way easily, but...war is very unpredictable. Saying that there is a 98% certainty does not take into account many wars throughout history where something was, "certainly going to happen," and then it didn't.