Will Russia enter Kiev by March 31st, 2022?
59
140
resolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES
This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before March 31st, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Kiev" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits. Feb 23, 11:09pm: I'll wait to confirm, but supposedly airborne troops have landed in Kyiv.
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bought Ṁ1 of YES
(It is, however, unclear if the number of troops that entered the city will be reported in a news outlet)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
The NYT very clearly says that “Russian forces entered Kyiv”: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I'm going to go ahead and be contrarian here, the payout is 50X on a no. So what is the definition of Kiev? The city of Kiev? Have Russian troops actually entered Kiev the city? Here we see from this article that troops have entered, "Kiev suburbs," which is not the same as Kiev. https://www.ft.com/content/c48390ea-37b0-4bfa-b3af-4c8ccbf01b88 Look on Google maps to see that the boundaries of Kiev do not extend up to the airport: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kyiv+City,+Kyiv,+Ukraine,+02000/@50.4021367,30.2525007,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d4cf4ee15a4505:0x791cf95e33bc0172!8m2!3d50.4501!4d30.5234 Of course this could go the other way easily, but...war is very unpredictable. Saying that there is a 98% certainty does not take into account many wars throughout history where something was, "certainly going to happen," and then it didn't.
bought Ṁ104 of YES
The New York Times has reported that Russian troops have entered Kyiv
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Thank you, I missed that. Unfortunately there is no way to remove tags.
bought Ṁ363 of YES
entering kiev is different than controlling kiev, so i don't think this is arbitrage
bought Ṁ2 of YES
Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-control-kyiv-as-of-apri