Germany is currently saying they will only send tanks if the US does too. Requires both countries deliver the tanks to Ukraine.
US M1 Abrams have arrived in germany for training of ukrainian troops, wont be long now.
@HarrySeaton8da7 True, but the training is said to be 10 weeks.
"Thirty-one US M1A1 Abrams tanks – the size of a Ukrainian tank battalion – will be sent by mid-May to Grafenwoehr, Germany, where roughly 250 Ukrainians will undergo a 10-week training course with US troops, a US official told reporters traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin."
US to begin training Ukrainian forces on Abrams tanks next month | CNN Politics
@M_HK_FA heres hoping theres a more than 20 percent chance they get it done quicker. depending on when they arrived would only need to be a few weeks sooner.
@HarrySeaton8da7 For sure, it's a fair bet! It'll be cutting it really close.
@M_HK_FA I read that they wouldn't be recieving tanks until like september. They are in production... But that was from back in like feb. I couldnt find any more info on shipping dates
@higherLEVELING they ended up refurbishing old abrams to get them there sooner. my speculation is that the goal is to have abrams in ukraine for the counter offensive given recent ukrainian drone and missle strike activity i would predict the offensive is no more then 2 months out. Ukraine will want to go almost immediately when the abrams arrive to reduce chance for the tanks to be damaged out of combat.
@HarrySeaton8da7 It's a bit of a wild bet, I for sure like it! Good luck! I'm betting NO, but I've got a >1000 mana so no biggie for me if I lose, you've got a lot of upside here. I do think it'll take longer though.
Ukraine’s Top Commander Signals Counteroffensive Could Be Imminent - The New York Times (nytimes.com) - This is rather new on the topic, "Defense Department officials had previously said that about 31 tanks would be sent to Germany to be used in a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 to 12 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, the officials have said."
@HarrySeaton8da7 Okay cool. Yeah when i read that they were manufacturing new tanks for them and said it's due in september, i was like wow. that'sgonna be a while still.
if they are training people for tanks, with training being 10 weeks, it would make sense that that there is an expectation that tanks will be there to use or they wouldn't be wasting those 10 weeks to train them for it. They would have had them doing something else instead.
@HarrySeaton8da7 German media reported that those 31 tanks are for training only, and not in fact the tanks that will be delivered to Ukraine.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukrainekrieg-in-grafenwoehr-hat-das-training-an-abrams-panzern-begonnen-a-ef682a7f-3d5f-43e5-a755-66f5b57be4f6
@LaurenzHemmen daaamn. bringing the receipts too. Where/when are tanks slated to arrive instead?
@HarrySeaton8da7 no idea. might also be deception. I agree it would be weird to train people now for tanks in September.
@LaurenzHemmen deception sounds plausable for this type of situation. Can't let the ops know when the hardware is coming in. Keep 'em guessing.
Edit: I just realized that they can finish tank training, even if they havent recieved the tanks from the US. According to this, How many tanks are going to Ukraine? Germany confirms delivery of Leopard tanks (msn.com) , they are recieving tanks from atleast 28 different countries. So them finishing training isn't necessarily an idicator that tanks from the US will be there.
@higherLEVELING ya the timing of the counter attack is something ukraine and nato are trying to keep close to their chest the rapid increase in bombing of supply lines in crimea and south east ukraine to me suggests that theyre preparing to launch soon all wild conjecture on my part but i am following news in ukraine closely.
@LaurenzHemmen hmm so they say if true im probably boned im gonna choose to believe thats not entirely truthful.
@higherLEVELING v according to usa abrams wont arrive until 'fall' my bet hinges on
1 ukraine counter offensive happens before market close
2 ukraine will not launch the counter offensive without abrams as it appears unlikely to succeed without them.
3v usa is rapidly and semi-secretly delivering abrams to ukraine in time for the xcoubnterv offensive that must also happen before market close in order to drastically increase the chance the counter offensive is successful.
@HarrySeaton8da7 Hm okay. could leopards do well in the counter offensive for now until abrams show up Finland could deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine, its president says – POLITICO
Are wie talking Main battle tanks (Leopard, Abrahams) and Infantry fighting vehicles (Marder, Bradley) or do other armored fighting vehicles also count (Panzerhaubitze 2000, MARS-2, Gepard)
@Schwabilismus I think tanks means tanks. The discussion is about Abrams.
Confirming: the tanks need to be in Ukraine, not used for training outside Ukraine?
Tanks roll out, war drums beat,
Foes advance, allies meet.
Will they fight or just pose?
Only time will disclose.
From the guardian
The US is speeding up its delivery of Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine by sending a refurbished older model that can be ready faster, according to US officials.
The original plan was to send 31 of the newer M1A2 Abrams tanks, which could have taken a year or two to build and ship. A decision has been taken to send the older M1A1 version, which can be taken from army stocks and will be easier for Ukrainian forces to learn to use and maintain, sources told Associated Press.
The aim is to get the 70-tonne tanks to the frontline in eight to 10 months, they said. The plan will be announced by the Pentagon soon, AP reports.
Alright folks, time to quibble over if "by autumn" means that it's feasible to get them before August. I'm gonna say yes, thank you for the profit, folks.
@CadeMataya This just got a lot more interesting!! Thanks for sharing!
This seems like a more relevant question now: https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se-550222277192?r=U3RhblBpbnNlbnQ
People with YES shares, are you waiting for a better time to sell or do you really think there's a >30% chance the US will somehow deliver months ahead of schedule?
@StanPinsent Probably just haven’t been day trading their portfolio like some of us power users. Lol. Still 4 months too and time is the most difficult variable to consider for stuff like this. People are probably assuming they just like drive the tanks over from Warsaw or fly them in from the tank depot in Camp Pendleton or whatever. They definitely aren’t considering that they are actually being build literally from scratch in the case of the Abrams.
@StanPinsent I wasn't aware that there'd been a late 2023 prediction on the delivery of US tanks and figured that the US could train and deliver decommissioned tanks before August.
@AlexanderKirkJrgensen this is what theyre doing uh oh no voters.
https://manifold.markets/NickelChen/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se#vduFrPJKhVJf42MXYCsO
"M1A2 Abrams tanks will be delivered to Ukraine at the end of this year or in 2024.
This was reported by the American newspaper Washington Post’s sources.
The 31 M1A2 main battle tanks would not be taken from U.S. military stockpiles, but would be procured under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative."
@PS The more I learn about this it becomes clear this is not logistically possible.
@BTE your skills in making the market go where you want to are truly amazing
@thebest33 I think I get the momentum going because I am a whale. I get so much in daily fees from traders on my markets I have to put it somewhere. I had a $2000 position open and just selling that moved the market 40%, but then I put on a new large position which took it further. I am not trying to manipulate anything, I just changed my mind, that simple.
@BTE I guess that's pretty much how it's supposed to work. You moved the market a lot; I guess that, had you not changed your mind, the market would still have gone down again, just more slowly. So long as there's enough other traders (presumably wouldn't have worked for a small/less popular market)...
@EdwardKmett Delivery might be an issue since they are procuring new tanks and not sending from existing stock.
@marketman From the article @EdwardKmett linked to:
"Any announcement would be a long-term contribution of Abrams, meaning the Ukrainians will not have them on the ground anytime soon because of the training and getting the sustainment framework established, a former defense official with knowledge of the deliberations told CNN. For now, the pending announcement by the US is more to make Germany feel more comfortable in providing their own tanks. "
@marketman Primarily because I remain dubious about delivery times on the US side. If they are just training Ukraine troops outside of the country on Abrams then this would resolve NO on the technicality, the shipping times are way up in the air, and the Abrams is not an easy tank to take care of in the field. So agreeing to send tanks is positive evidence but not positive enough for me to believe in the market odds I was seeing here. That said. I'm exiting hard now because I can take a short term profit.
Halfway there. US needs to commit Abrams tanks now to resolve YES.
@BTE Commit AND have them delivered by July per previous discussion (I would say you could resolve if their commitment stated they would be delivered by July)
@SuperTaxGenius I think the key is going to be how long it takes to train and does training count as delivery? I hadn’t thought about that, what are your thoughts? Hands on training = delivery?
@BTE If the training occurs in Ukraine I would say yes. If a different country I would say no. I for one accounted for the logistics of delivering M1A1 to Ukraine and the likelihood that training would occur elsewhere and take a long time.
@SuperTaxGenius I think you make a really good point. I should stop trading based on news alerts I get in the grocery store line!!
