Will the US and Germany both send tanks to Ukraine by the end of July 2023?
resolved Aug 11

Germany is currently saying they will only send tanks if the US does too. Requires both countries deliver the tanks to Ukraine.

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bought Ṁ0 of YES

How would this resolve if there were Abrams in Ukraine on July 29, but we'd get the news on August 7?

Pinging @BTE , also concerning Martin's question below.

@Primer I can wait to resolve a week or so after it closes. But there needs to be evidence it was there before the end of the month.

@BTE I think my question is whether this would re-resolve if we learned otherwise later. Fog of war and everything... Potentially, neither Ukraine nor Russia would want us to know if Ukraine already had the tanks.

@Primer The US is who releases the info. I am pretty sure we can’t give Ukraine anything in secret unfortunately. Part of procurement. So I am confident it won’t go unannounced. As of now the DoD is saying the Abrams won’t be in theatre until 2024. Apparently they are a bitch to maintain so they need to train the Ukrainian mechanics more than the tank operators.

predicted NO

@BTE the US can and has given covert military support to other militaries, procurement rules be damned. But I think it's a 1% chance at this point.

predicted NO

@BTE It's quite hard to hide tanks these days.

@MartinRandall Lol, ain’t that the truth. Harder than ever.

predicted NO

How does this resolve if the US delivers one tank?

@MartinRandall I think that should resolve YES.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

US M1 Abrams have arrived in germany for training of ukrainian troops, wont be long now.

predicted NO

@HarrySeaton8da7 True, but the training is said to be 10 weeks.

"Thirty-one US M1A1 Abrams tanks – the size of a Ukrainian tank battalion – will be sent by mid-May to Grafenwoehr, Germany, where roughly 250 Ukrainians will undergo a 10-week training course with US troops, a US official told reporters traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin."

US to begin training Ukrainian forces on Abrams tanks next month | CNN Politics

predicted YES

@M_HK_FA heres hoping theres a more than 20 percent chance they get it done quicker. depending on when they arrived would only need to be a few weeks sooner.

predicted NO

@HarrySeaton8da7 For sure, it's a fair bet! It'll be cutting it really close.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@M_HK_FA im in way too deep to back down now

predicted YES

@HarrySeaton8da7 Payout

Ṁ14,862 on YES



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predicted YES

@M_HK_FA I read that they wouldn't be recieving tanks until like september. They are in production... But that was from back in like feb. I couldnt find any more info on shipping dates

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING they ended up refurbishing old abrams to get them there sooner. my speculation is that the goal is to have abrams in ukraine for the counter offensive given recent ukrainian drone and missle strike activity i would predict the offensive is no more then 2 months out. Ukraine will want to go almost immediately when the abrams arrive to reduce chance for the tanks to be damaged out of combat.

predicted NO

@HarrySeaton8da7 It's a bit of a wild bet, I for sure like it! Good luck! I'm betting NO, but I've got a >1000 mana so no biggie for me if I lose, you've got a lot of upside here. I do think it'll take longer though.

Ukraine’s Top Commander Signals Counteroffensive Could Be Imminent - The New York Times (nytimes.com) - This is rather new on the topic, "Defense Department officials had previously said that about 31 tanks would be sent to Germany to be used in a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 to 12 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, the officials have said."

predicted YES

@HarrySeaton8da7 Okay cool. Yeah when i read that they were manufacturing new tanks for them and said it's due in september, i was like wow. that'sgonna be a while still.
if they are training people for tanks, with training being 10 weeks, it would make sense that that there is an expectation that tanks will be there to use or they wouldn't be wasting those 10 weeks to train them for it. They would have had them doing something else instead.

predicted YES

@LaurenzHemmen daaamn. bringing the receipts too. Where/when are tanks slated to arrive instead?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@HarrySeaton8da7 no idea. might also be deception. I agree it would be weird to train people now for tanks in September.

predicted YES

@LaurenzHemmen deception sounds plausable for this type of situation. Can't let the ops know when the hardware is coming in. Keep 'em guessing.

Edit: I just realized that they can finish tank training, even if they havent recieved the tanks from the US. According to this, How many tanks are going to Ukraine? Germany confirms delivery of Leopard tanks (msn.com) , they are recieving tanks from atleast 28 different countries. So them finishing training isn't necessarily an idicator that tanks from the US will be there.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING ya the timing of the counter attack is something ukraine and nato are trying to keep close to their chest the rapid increase in bombing of supply lines in crimea and south east ukraine to me suggests that theyre preparing to launch soon all wild conjecture on my part but i am following news in ukraine closely.

predicted YES

@LaurenzHemmen hmm so they say if true im probably boned im gonna choose to believe thats not entirely truthful.

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING v according to usa abrams wont arrive until 'fall' my bet hinges on

1 ukraine counter offensive happens before market close

2 ukraine will not launch the counter offensive without abrams as it appears unlikely to succeed without them.

3v usa is rapidly and semi-secretly delivering abrams to ukraine in time for the xcoubnterv offensive that must also happen before market close in order to drastically increase the chance the counter offensive is successful.

predicted YES

@HarrySeaton8da7 Hm okay. could leopards do well in the counter offensive for now until abrams show up Finland could deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine, its president says – POLITICO