Will the US and Germany both send tanks to Ukraine by the end of July 2023?
closes Aug 1

Germany is currently saying they will only send tanks if the US does too. Requires both countries deliver the tanks to Ukraine.

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HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonbought Ṁ50 of YES

US M1 Abrams have arrived in germany for training of ukrainian troops, wont be long now.

M_HK_FA avatar
MHKFAis predicting NO at 17%

@HarrySeaton8da7 True, but the training is said to be 10 weeks.

"Thirty-one US M1A1 Abrams tanks – the size of a Ukrainian tank battalion – will be sent by mid-May to Grafenwoehr, Germany, where roughly 250 Ukrainians will undergo a 10-week training course with US troops, a US official told reporters traveling with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin."

US to begin training Ukrainian forces on Abrams tanks next month | CNN Politics

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 16%

@M_HK_FA heres hoping theres a more than 20 percent chance they get it done quicker. depending on when they arrived would only need to be a few weeks sooner.

M_HK_FA avatar
MHKFAis predicting NO at 16%

@HarrySeaton8da7 For sure, it's a fair bet! It'll be cutting it really close.

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonbought Ṁ100 of YES

@M_HK_FA im in way too deep to back down now

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 16%

@HarrySeaton8da7 Payout

Ṁ14,862 on YES



Expected value




higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 16%

@M_HK_FA I read that they wouldn't be recieving tanks until like september. They are in production... But that was from back in like feb. I couldnt find any more info on shipping dates

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 29%

@higherLEVELING they ended up refurbishing old abrams to get them there sooner. my speculation is that the goal is to have abrams in ukraine for the counter offensive given recent ukrainian drone and missle strike activity i would predict the offensive is no more then 2 months out. Ukraine will want to go almost immediately when the abrams arrive to reduce chance for the tanks to be damaged out of combat.

M_HK_FA avatar
MHKFAis predicting NO at 29%

@HarrySeaton8da7 It's a bit of a wild bet, I for sure like it! Good luck! I'm betting NO, but I've got a >1000 mana so no biggie for me if I lose, you've got a lot of upside here. I do think it'll take longer though.

Ukraine’s Top Commander Signals Counteroffensive Could Be Imminent - The New York Times (nytimes.com) - This is rather new on the topic, "Defense Department officials had previously said that about 31 tanks would be sent to Germany to be used in a training program for Ukrainian troops that is expected to take 10 to 12 weeks. Combat-ready tanks could reach the battlefields in Ukraine by the fall, the officials have said."

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 29%

@HarrySeaton8da7 Okay cool. Yeah when i read that they were manufacturing new tanks for them and said it's due in september, i was like wow. that'sgonna be a while still.
if they are training people for tanks, with training being 10 weeks, it would make sense that that there is an expectation that tanks will be there to use or they wouldn't be wasting those 10 weeks to train them for it. They would have had them doing something else instead.

LaurenzHemmen avatar
Laurenz Hemmenis predicting NO at 29%

@HarrySeaton8da7 German media reported that those 31 tanks are for training only, and not in fact the tanks that will be delivered to Ukraine.


Ukrainekrieg: Training an Abrams-Panzern in Grafenwöhr hat begonnen
Ukrainekrieg: Training an Abrams-Panzern in Grafenwöhr hat begonnen
Bedienen, warten, Einsatztaktiken: In Grafenwöhr werden 200 ukrainische Einsatzkräfte an Übungspanzern geschult. Kampftaugliche Abrams sollen in den kommenden Monaten im Kriegsgebiet eintreffen.
higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 29% (edited)

@LaurenzHemmen daaamn. bringing the receipts too. Where/when are tanks slated to arrive instead?

LaurenzHemmen avatar
Laurenz Hemmenbought Ṁ100 of NO

@HarrySeaton8da7 no idea. might also be deception. I agree it would be weird to train people now for tanks in September.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 27% (edited)

@LaurenzHemmen deception sounds plausable for this type of situation. Can't let the ops know when the hardware is coming in. Keep 'em guessing.

Edit: I just realized that they can finish tank training, even if they havent recieved the tanks from the US. According to this, How many tanks are going to Ukraine? Germany confirms delivery of Leopard tanks (msn.com) , they are recieving tanks from atleast 28 different countries. So them finishing training isn't necessarily an idicator that tanks from the US will be there.

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 27%

@higherLEVELING ya the timing of the counter attack is something ukraine and nato are trying to keep close to their chest the rapid increase in bombing of supply lines in crimea and south east ukraine to me suggests that theyre preparing to launch soon all wild conjecture on my part but i am following news in ukraine closely.

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 27%

@LaurenzHemmen hmm so they say if true im probably boned im gonna choose to believe thats not entirely truthful.

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 29%

@higherLEVELING v according to usa abrams wont arrive until 'fall' my bet hinges on

1 ukraine counter offensive happens before market close

2 ukraine will not launch the counter offensive without abrams as it appears unlikely to succeed without them.

3v usa is rapidly and semi-secretly delivering abrams to ukraine in time for the xcoubnterv offensive that must also happen before market close in order to drastically increase the chance the counter offensive is successful.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 29%

@HarrySeaton8da7 Hm okay. could leopards do well in the counter offensive for now until abrams show up Finland could deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine, its president says – POLITICO

Schwabilismus avatar
Schwabilismusis predicting NO at 12%

Are wie talking Main battle tanks (Leopard, Abrahams) and Infantry fighting vehicles (Marder, Bradley) or do other armored fighting vehicles also count (Panzerhaubitze 2000, MARS-2, Gepard)

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting NO at 14%

@Schwabilismus I think tanks means tanks. The discussion is about Abrams.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

This photo was apparently taken March 28th inside Ukraine.

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballbought Ṁ100 of NO

@BTE the one behind the US flag is clearly not a tank.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardssold Ṁ357 of YES

@ErickBall Damn you are absolutely right. LOL. Momentary exuberance followed by shame...

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrákbought Ṁ50 of NO


MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ200 of NO

Confirming: the tanks need to be in Ukraine, not used for training outside Ukraine?

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of YES

Tanks roll out, war drums beat,
Foes advance, allies meet.
Will they fight or just pose?
Only time will disclose.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacresold Ṁ294 of NO

From the guardian

The US is speeding up its delivery of Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine by sending a refurbished older model that can be ready faster, according to US officials.

The original plan was to send 31 of the newer M1A2 Abrams tanks, which could have taken a year or two to build and ship. A decision has been taken to send the older M1A1 version, which can be taken from army stocks and will be easier for Ukrainian forces to learn to use and maintain, sources told Associated Press.

The aim is to get the 70-tonne tanks to the frontline in eight to 10 months, they said. The plan will be announced by the Pentagon soon, AP reports.

CadeMataya avatar
Cade Matayais predicting NO at 10%


Alright folks, time to quibble over if "by autumn" means that it's feasible to get them before August. I'm gonna say yes, thank you for the profit, folks.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 10%

@CadeMataya This just got a lot more interesting!! Thanks for sharing!

StanPinsent avatar
Stan Pinsentis predicting NO at 21%
StanPinsent avatar
Stan Pinsentbought Ṁ45 of NO

People with YES shares, are you waiting for a better time to sell or do you really think there's a >30% chance the US will somehow deliver months ahead of schedule?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 27%

@StanPinsent Probably just haven’t been day trading their portfolio like some of us power users. Lol. Still 4 months too and time is the most difficult variable to consider for stuff like this. People are probably assuming they just like drive the tanks over from Warsaw or fly them in from the tank depot in Camp Pendleton or whatever. They definitely aren’t considering that they are actually being build literally from scratch in the case of the Abrams.

AlexanderKirkJrgensen avatar
Alexander Kirk Jørgensenis predicting YES at 22%

@StanPinsent I wasn't aware that there'd been a late 2023 prediction on the delivery of US tanks and figured that the US could train and deliver decommissioned tanks before August.

HarrySeaton8da7 avatar
Harry Seatonis predicting YES at 29%

@AlexanderKirkJrgensen this is what theyre doing uh oh no voters.

PS avatar
PSbought Ṁ200 of NO


"M1A2 Abrams tanks will be delivered to Ukraine at the end of this year or in 2024.

This was reported by the American newspaper Washington Post’s sources.

The 31 M1A2 main battle tanks would not be taken from U.S. military stockpiles, but would be procured under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative."

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardssold Ṁ10 of YES

@PS The more I learn about this it becomes clear this is not logistically possible.

thebest33 avatar
the best 33is predicting YES at 22%

@BTE your skills in making the market go where you want to are truly amazing

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 22%

@thebest33 I think I get the momentum going because I am a whale. I get so much in daily fees from traders on my markets I have to put it somewhere. I had a $2000 position open and just selling that moved the market 40%, but then I put on a new large position which took it further. I am not trying to manipulate anything, I just changed my mind, that simple.

PS avatar
PSis predicting NO at 29%

@BTE I guess that's pretty much how it's supposed to work. You moved the market a lot; I guess that, had you not changed your mind, the market would still have gone down again, just more slowly. So long as there's enough other traders (presumably wouldn't have worked for a small/less popular market)...

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 87%

@EdwardKmett Delivery might be an issue since they are procuring new tanks and not sending from existing stock.

marketman avatar

@EdwardKmett then why are you voting no?

PS avatar

@marketman From the article @EdwardKmett linked to:

"Any announcement would be a long-term contribution of Abrams, meaning the Ukrainians will not have them on the ground anytime soon because of the training and getting the sustainment framework established, a former defense official with knowledge of the deliberations told CNN. For now, the pending announcement by the US is more to make Germany feel more comfortable in providing their own tanks. "

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmettsold Ṁ188 of NO

@marketman Primarily because I remain dubious about delivery times on the US side. If they are just training Ukraine troops outside of the country on Abrams then this would resolve NO on the technicality, the shipping times are way up in the air, and the Abrams is not an easy tank to take care of in the field. So agreeing to send tanks is positive evidence but not positive enough for me to believe in the market odds I was seeing here. That said. I'm exiting hard now because I can take a short term profit.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting NO at 45%

Halfway there. US needs to commit Abrams tanks now to resolve YES.

SuperTaxGenius avatar
Super Tax Geniusis predicting NO at 45%

@BTE Commit AND have them delivered by July per previous discussion (I would say you could resolve if their commitment stated they would be delivered by July)

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardssold Ṁ303 of NO

@SuperTaxGenius I think the key is going to be how long it takes to train and does training count as delivery? I hadn’t thought about that, what are your thoughts? Hands on training = delivery?

SuperTaxGenius avatar
Super Tax Geniusis predicting NO at 82%

@BTE If the training occurs in Ukraine I would say yes. If a different country I would say no. I for one accounted for the logistics of delivering M1A1 to Ukraine and the likelihood that training would occur elsewhere and take a long time.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 82%

@SuperTaxGenius I think you make a really good point. I should stop trading based on news alerts I get in the grocery store line!!

PS avatar

@BTE Also, there were reports from Germany that it would take until 2024 to actually have the tanks ready. While it may just be dragging its feet, it's still possible to train Ukrainian operators on tanks which are to remain in Germany well before the actual delivery is ready.

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