How many tropical cyclones will occur during the 2023-24 South Pacific cyclone season?
3
38
620
2025
12%
5
11%
6
9%
4
8%
12
7%
11
6%
9
6%
13
6%
10
5%
8
5%
14
5%
7
4%
15
4%
2
4%
3
4%
16
4%
Other

This market will resolve to the number of tropical cyclones warned on by the Fiji Meteorological Service and MetService New Zealand in the South Pacific (east of 160 degrees east) throughout the entire duration of the 2023-24 cyclone year (July 2023 to June 2024). This should be the same as the value listed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_South_Pacific_cyclone_season.

This count will include storms that develop in-basin, as well as storms that have moved in from the Australian region, as long as they remain tropical cyclone intensity.

A "tropical cyclone" in the South Pacific is defined as a tropical system with 10 minute sustained winds of 34 knots (63 km/h), as assessed by RSMC Nadi (Fiji Meteorological Service) or TCWC Wellington (Meteorological Service of New Zealand).

I plan to split off markets for up to 20 TCs in the event that there have been 12 TCs during the season. If necessary, more will be created beyond that (highly unlikely).

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