@ChristopherRandles

Now we have 15 officially with TS Oscar.

Patty follow up:

I thought it would be kind of wild earlier this morning if they named Oscar right after I made the market for it... and now its about to come true.

TS Nadine formed this morning, bringing it to 14. Follow up for Oscar (which would be #15):

@parhizj might as well put Patty up soon.

@ScottSupak Yeah I posted that same image to the discord earlier lol

Rather than telling me what you're thinking... bet when you think Nadine will form (2 week bins)

Edit: had a problem with double counting... that shifts the probabilites slightly..

What I get now under different scenarios for the two disturbances in the Atlantic (weighting a normal climatology with ensemble probabilities until Oct. 14):

# Named Storms in bins: {(11, 15): 65.65597724262948, (16, 20): 34.194078278186765, (21, 25): 0.1499100830268043, (26, 30): 3.4394976133551305e-05, (31, 35): 1.1808170372811923e-09, (36, 999): 1.0124506645081181e-14}

I notice NHC says the remnants of Gordon are possibly going to re-develop at some point...does anyone know if those would be named Gordon again, or would that be a whole new storm?

@JosephCaissie sorry I missed this. Yes, it would've been Gordon again.

I expect the number of tropical storms in the next month to be on average near the climatological mean. Using a couple different climatological estimates, I get the 11-15 bin as the most likely, with 0-10 as the second most likely. This contrasts with the ACE market where I still expect above normal ACE with albeit fewer, more powerful storms.

Edit: Ran the same analysis again with Francine, still 11-15 bin as likely. With ACE, now I expect normal ACE (or near normal) ...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

September 9 is when we have on average our 8th storm. Francine makes 7. This puts us a week behind the seasonal average of 14, right in the middle of the 11-15 bin.

NHC is also forceasting a TC in the next week at 70% chance, so this matches as well.

Standard linear regression: n_storms = 0.2857 year - 557.8

R^2=0.221 - so the year only captures a bit of the variance

Year-based estimate: 20.4568 storms

Data is at the bottom.

I also did a simulation with a linear model and increasing variance and then multiplied the posterior storms by 1+HalfNormal(0.1). (I'll post a notebook link when I have time.) It identified some of the items as under-estimated. But when I bet, they went haywire. So, I've provided some more liquidity. But I reached my limit. Someone else will need to correct the huge overestimate for 36+. It was fun, but a lot of time for 191 Manna (expected).

Data (storms per year 1994-2023)

# From the number of entries recorded on https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/<year>.html

"Year","Number of Hurricanes"

2023, 22

2022, 17

2021, 21

2020, 31

2019, 19

2018, 16

2017, 19

2016, 16

2015, 12

2014, 9

2013, 15

2012, 19

2011, 19

2010, 19

2009, 9

2008, 16

2007, 15

2006, 10

2005, 28

2004, 15

2003, 16

2002, 12

2001, 15

2000, 15

1999, 12

1998, 14

1997, 8

1996, 13

1995, 19

1994, 7

Here's the notebook link: https://github.com/RadixSeven/2024-Atlantic-Hurricane-Notebook/blob/08add810321f4600042626b869a9411611a8aefd/atlantic_hurricanes.ipynb

@EricMoyer You are counting (unnamed named storms) and tropical depressions in your count ...

Edit: Here is the count I get from IBtracks NA:

{1966: 15, 1967: 13, 1968: 9, 1969: 18, 1970: 14, 1971: 13, 1972: 7, 1973: 8, 1974: 11, 1975: 9, 1976: 10, 1977: 6, 1978: 12, 1979: 9, 1980: 11, 1981: 12, 1982: 6, 1983: 4, 1984: 13, 1985: 11, 1986: 6, 1987: 7, 1988: 12, 1989: 11, 1990: 14, 1991: 8, 1992: 7, 1993: 8, 1994: 7, 1995: 19, 1996: 13, 1997: 8, 1998: 14, 1999: 12, 2000: 15, 2001: 15, 2002: 12, 2003: 16, 2004: 15, 2005: 28, 2006: 10, 2007: 15, 2008: 16, 2009: 9, 2010: 19, 2011: 19, 2012: 19, 2013: 14, 2014: 8, 2015: 11, 2016: 15, 2017: 17, 2018: 15, 2019: 18, 2020: 30, 2021: 21, 2022: 14, 2023: 19}

Edit: deleted. Nevermind, this is satisfied by the resolution criteria.

@ScottSupak Just wondering, what makes you expect that this hurricane season will be so disastrous?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Record high ssts and an emerging la Nina

NOAA predicts 17-25 named storms:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season