Will it be El Nino, La Nina, or neither during 2024's peak hurricane season?
Basic
9
Ṁ604
resolved Nov 7
100%33%
Neutral (-0.5 < ONI < 0.5)
1.2%
El Niño (ONI > 0.5)
66%
La Niña (ONI < -0.5)

Peak hurricane season stretches from August to October. El Niño tends to enhance Pacific and suppress Pacific tropical cyclone activity, while La Niña tends to do the opposite.

I will take the value on this page for ASO 2024: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

See also this associated market predicting ENSO state over the entire year: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-the-average-enso-oni-be-i

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ASO is -0.2 on the source so can resolve as neutral
@SaviorofPlant

@ChristopherRandles wow wasn't even close

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