Will it be El Nino, La Nina, or neither during 2024's peak hurricane season?
6
108
Ṁ275Ṁ155
Nov 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
3%
El Niño (ONI > 0.5)
18%
Neutral (-0.5 < ONI < 0.5)
79%
La Niña (ONI < -0.5)
Peak hurricane season stretches from August to October. El Niño tends to enhance Pacific and suppress Pacific tropical cyclone activity, while La Niña tends to do the opposite.
I will take the value on this page for ASO 2024: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
See also this associated market predicting ENSO state over the entire year: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-the-average-enso-oni-be-i
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