23
178
3.9k
2025
1.4%
0
3%
1
2%
2
2%
3
3%
4
6%
5
8%
6
16%
7
17%
8
25%
9
23%
10
20%
11
18%
12
25%
13 or more

How many Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in 2024?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be used to resolve the question. Tropical storms do not count. Pacific storms do not count. "Major Hurricanes" will count as hurricanes. If there is any dispute or ambiguity in the number of hurricanes, the market creator will use best judgement to resolve the question.

The market closes at midnight ET on December 31, 2024 and will resolve on January 1, 2025. If there are any changes of classifications throughout the course of 2024, the market creator will cite whatever classification is used by NHC on January 1, 2025.

No further answers will be added. This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.

Background:

The Weather Company and Atmosphere G2, as well as meteorologists from Colorado State University, are each forecasting 11 hurricanes this hurricane season.

Atlantic Hurricane Season - Wikipedia

2023 Hurricane Season

Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary

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Let's hope I correctly am exploiting the fact that we have mutually exclusive outcomes summing to >100%.

NOAA: Busy Atlantic hurricane season ahead with unprecedented ocean conditions

https://www.axios.com/2024/05/23/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-noaa

Just to clarify...by major hurricanes, do you mean category 3 or higher? Also, when you say no Pacific storms, do you mean only major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean? What about the Indian ocean?

@AGG yes, 'major hurricanes' mean cat 3 or higher.

Only Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. Indian Ocean does not count.

@MickBransfield Thank you!

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