This will resolve according to data from the Wikipedia article "2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season" on June 30, 2024 or once a 97-98 data point is exceeded - unless that data is obviously wrong (determined via a consensus of this market's contributors).
97-98 data has been taken from Wikipedia unless otherwise noted.
All these questions here is very convenient, but it makes it look like forecasting HARD mode 😂 .
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php
On another note, this is an extended outlook that is updated on Tuesdays from the Climate prediction center at NCEP. I'll paste it here to remind myself to look at it once a week. (The graphic goes from week 2 to 3 and will be updated tomorrow I suppose). The discussion has already been updated though today.
Some reading material for myself as I don't know much about the Southern Pacific:
SPCZ: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GL014201
SPCZ variability from ENSO (Edit):
