Resolves YES if a Georgia judge denies Trump bail in August 2023, otherwise NO.
https://twitter.com/TonyHussein4/status/1691196013472608256
Andrew Weissmann explains that due to witness tampering, if indicted in Georgia, Donald Trump might not be granted bail. Just today, on Truth Social, Donald Trump told Jeff Duncan NOT TO TESTIFY before the Fulton County Grand Jury.
The definition of "denying bail" here is the legal definition in the relevant jurisdication. If that is unclear, then a consensus of reliable media reporting may be used.
Related questions
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html
Former President Donald Trump has agreed to a $200,000 bond and other release conditions after his lawyers met with the Fulton County district attorney’s office on Monday, according to court documents reviewed by CNN.
“The Defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice,” the order signed by Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee states.
“The above shall include, but are not limited to, posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media,” the order reads.
So, want to bet if he attacks the witnesses again, and what happens when he does?
@jcb I thought that revoking bail would probably be considered a form of denying bail maybe? But maybe not, I'm doing some research and it seems that they may be considered two separate things.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/politics/fulton-county-jail-trump-surrender-civil-rights/index.html
In a typical case in Fulton County where police make an arrest, the person arrested is booked into jail and must appear before a magistrate judge within 72 hours. That won’t be the case for the defendants in this racketeering case. Since they have already been indicted and will likely have negotiated bond, they most likely won’t have an initial court appearance, attorneys told CNN.
The judge that considers the bond agreement, likely Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee who was assigned to the case, has to consider four factors when deciding whether to approve the bond agreements, attorneys told CNN. The judge has to determine the defendant is not a flight risk, is not likely to commit other felonies pending trial, does not present a danger to the community and is not likely to intimidate witnesses or take other steps to interfere with the case.
https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1691109568817045504 (idk precisely how relevant this is bc not a lawyer)
Arrest warrants issued: August 25 is deadline to surrender. (link below)
I asked ChatGPT how soon after that surrendering is the arraignment? "In many cases, the arraignment is scheduled relatively soon after the individual surrenders to the arrest warrant, typically within a few days to a week."
That puts an estimated arraignment before August finishes.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-georgia-indictment-arraignment-mugshot-b2393310.html
please don't ask chatgpt and post the unchecked result. i have no idea if it's made up or not, and selection effects mean it'll get asked in contexts where it's most likely to make stuff up. Use it as a starting point, and then confirm the answer. I consider it equivalent to posting a link to blogspam
@jacksonpolack "selection effects mean it'll get asked in contexts where it's most likely to make stuff up" please explain this
@jacksonpolack https://www.justsecurity.org/87647/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-a-trump-trial-in-fulton-county/
"The next step will be arraignment—where the defendants appear in court to be formally charged. Arraignment typically occurs within a few days. Coordinating all the defendants may require the arraignment to be set at a later date or to have different defendants arraigned on different days"
what I mean is that if the answer is easy to google or figure out, you'll figure it out yourself that way, and won't ask ChatGPT, and those are often the kinds of things ChatGPT will get right - whereas if the issue is difficult to figure out, you're more likely to ask ChatGPT, and ChatGPT is also more likely to get it wrong
@jacksonpolack I think there are certain domains where such questions and information is hard to Google but easy for ChatGPT to get right most of the time. I did google it last night and came up empty but your point is well taken generally.
If the judge orders house arrest, that would count as denying bail, I think. EDIT: nevermind, see below
house arrest should be used only for offenders who would normally not be let out on bail or in cases where a very high bail is set but is reduced on the condition of house arrest.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/house-arrest
In the latter scenario mentioned in that quote where "very high bail is set but is reduced on the condition of house arrest", that would not count as denying bail.
https://apnews.com/article/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-ny-court-updates-e51c72c60cd76d242a48b19b16fd9998
Looks like SBF was "granted bail" with bail terms including house arrest.
