If Trump is charged in Georgia, will he make a deal?
39
3.5k
2027
16%
chance

Related market must resolve YES first.

Resolves YES if Trump makes a deal after being charged in Georgia. Resolves NO if not.

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predicts NO

Is the end date correct here @BTE ? Or should it be extended until the trial concludes?

predicts NO

@Joshua Extended. Thanks for heads up.

If I were confident he's going to lose the nomination, I'd bet he's going to make a deal

predicts YES

First time offenders get no jail time when they plead guilty for these crimes. Or at least so it appears.

@BTE I guess it doesn’t help him to not drag this out as long as possible.

predicts NO

@BTE Can you see Trump doing an allocution, or even worse, writing a letter of apology?

predicts NO

@FrederickNorris No. I definitely cannot. Couldn’t see Sidney Powell do it either but she did. Though I understand she may be acting as if it was coerced.

predicts NO

@BTE These con people have no problem getting second acts. If Televangelist Jim Bakker could do it, Sydney Powell can do it, too. I'm convinced George Santos is also going to try to do it, after he gets out of prison.

Resolves N/A if he is not charged?

@MattP Not charged by that specific DA or by the end of 2024 that is (which is the closing criteria for your other market).

predicts NO

@MattP This market resolves N/A if the trigger question resolves NO. The question about his being charged in GA has no time related cutoff, as per your suggestion or perhaps Jack, I am leaving it open until a resolution is determined by the DA. Since her current term is up at the end of 2024 I think it is a reasonable assumption that she will be campaigning on her decision in this case either way, so I bet it comes early 2023 at the latest.

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