Trump has broken a gag order twice. Will he do it again in same Manhattan court?
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resolved May 1
Resolved
NO

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Hi @Bruce54df, I'm not going to override your decision in this market as we try to give the benefit of the doubt when things are ambiguous (although we are going to be increasingly strict about this going forward). That said, I would strongly suggest an N/A as the market was very unclear and you clarified very significant resolution criteria in the comments long after it was created. Also going forward please make sure to pin any criteria defining comments and update the description accordingly. Thanks!

@SirSalty David: when I created the market it was unambiguous because the only ongoing trial was the Letitia James case. It only became confusing when the current criminal trial started. I will try to be more careful and clear in future.

@Bruce54df This question was poorly worded and misleading.

bought Ṁ40 NO

Interesting activity on this one. Got very popular two days ago. A bunch of small YES bets.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Tsunombie Indeed.

This market does not deal with current criminal trial in NYC vs. Trump. This market deals with claims that Trump overinflated the value of his properties. In that civil fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, the state judge fined Trump $15,000 last year for twice violating a gag order against publicly commenting about his law clerk.

@Bruce54df Thanks for the notes. I wonder also: Is this "same Manhattan court" more-or-less done with this case? Can the appeals court send the case back to the same Manhattan court? (I'm motivated by my bets, but I'm not pressuring or suggesting one way or the other.)

@Tsunombie I think that this case is pretty much over except for the damages phase where NYAG attempts to collect hundreds of millions in damages that were awarded. Trump of course appealed so damages are not due until his appeals are exhausted. In the interim however he had to post a bond and NYAG is contesting the financial viability of the company that put up the bond. The market at any rate expires on April 30, so low probability that Trump will be found to have violated the gag order in this case in next 7 days.

This question relates to the earlier E Jean Carrol trial, not current criminal trial.

@Bruce54df My mistake; not Carrol trial but NYAG Letitia James cases vs. Trump