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This market does not deal with current criminal trial in NYC vs. Trump. This market deals with claims that Trump overinflated the value of his properties. In that civil fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, the state judge fined Trump $15,000 last year for twice violating a gag order against publicly commenting about his law clerk.
@Bruce54df Thanks for the notes. I wonder also: Is this "same Manhattan court" more-or-less done with this case? Can the appeals court send the case back to the same Manhattan court? (I'm motivated by my bets, but I'm not pressuring or suggesting one way or the other.)
@Tsunombie I think that this case is pretty much over except for the damages phase where NYAG attempts to collect hundreds of millions in damages that were awarded. Trump of course appealed so damages are not due until his appeals are exhausted. In the interim however he had to post a bond and NYAG is contesting the financial viability of the company that put up the bond. The market at any rate expires on April 30, so low probability that Trump will be found to have violated the gag order in this case in next 7 days.