This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives. I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count. An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count.
Related questions
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
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