Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before July 2023? (tests included)
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resolved Jul 2
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after January 1, 2023 and before July 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

  • A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

  • A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

  • Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.

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See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

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predicted NO

You wrote "July 1, 2024" in the description.

@NeonNuke Fixed, thanks!