Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that doesn’t count.
This is question #8 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
@AndreiGavrea It's up to Scott, but based on the description I don't see any reason to think they wouldn't qualify.
@AndreiGavrea The last above ground test was in 1980 conducted by China. Underground tests have been conducted by North Korea, Pakistan and India since 1995. I think the next above ground detonation is unlikely to be a test.
@BTE … damn, I guess those are going to be some serious shoes, huh?
@MattCWilson Imagine how much more airport security would suck if someone could shove a nuke in a pair of Jordan's!!
@BTE Kim did 7 tests in short succession 2006-2017. There has been no test ever since. Maybe North Korea has completed the development phase and is focusing on other systems (e.g. ICBM).
@AndreiGavrea They claimed recently to have tactical nukes so it’s a decent chance they will test those. All previous tests have been larger warheads.
