Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033? | Manifold

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?

30

1kṀ4501

2033

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For the purposes of this question, a nuclear weapon will be considered used militarily if, by the end of 2033, there is an intentional detonation of a nuclear device by any entity that causes substantial damage, harm, or casualties as an act of aggression to advance military objectives against an adversary. The detonation must be a hostile action deployed for a military purpose, not a test or accident.

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Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5

Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023?

5% chance. Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched or detonated for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2024, anywhere in the world. Sep 29, 6:02pm: “launched” was changed to “launched or detonated” - see this comment for rationale and how to be…

@brp did you note that the year is different in this market?

@JuJumper Oh my. I read this market's date as 2023.

@brp My apologies to everyone who traded based on the "arbitrage opportunity."

Always betting yes on these to hopefully manifest my own radioactive death.

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