Resolves YES if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon (whether test or non-test) by June 9, 2023 at 11:59pm local time in Korea. NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on reliable media reporting.

Background

In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expand their nuclear arsenal. North Korea has done 6 nuclear tests (see Wikipedia's list here), the first in 2006 and the most recent in 2017. South Korean and US intelligence indicated that North Korea had completed preparations for a nuclear test. Satellite imagery showed the reopening of their underground nuclear test site (previously closed in 2018).

Related

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-2e1a1fd10302

/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954

This is a follow-up question to

/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107

/BTE/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear

See also https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device

Fine print

• A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

• A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

• Detonation is defined here as nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched or dropped but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.