Will the National Grid Demand Flexibility Service be renewed for winter 2024/25?
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16
100
Dec 31
85%
chance

The National Grid Demand Flexibility Service pays consumers to reduce their electricity consumption at times of peak load. Consumers are paid significantly higher than market rates to reduce electricity consumption (£3000 per MWh last year). The scheme was launched for winter 2022/23, and renewed for another year in 23/24. The most recent scheme was criticised due to lower takeup and poor value for money, however conventional generation capacity is not forecast to grow so some form of demand response is likely to be required this winter.

The current scheme expires in March 2024. If an identical or substantially similar scheme is announced by the ESO for the coming winter, this will resolve to YES.

Resolves to NO on 2024-12-31 if not.

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@traders The ESO have announced their intention to renew some sort of consumer demand response scheme for next winter.

Doesn't resolve YES yet, as they still need to confirm that the scheme will go ahead (albeit this is pretty much a given) and that the details will be similar (i.e. domestic consumers paid above market rates to reduce consumption; scheduled D-1 or same-day, electricity retailers responsible for marketing/managing their own flavours of the scheme).

Example changes that could make this resolve NO: price discovery does not lead to significantly above-market rates; restricted to I&C customers only; real-time or longer-period scheduling (like triads); no involvement of retail electricity suppliers (i.e. ESO/DSO pays directly to consumers).

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