Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?
28
1kṀ18762040
4%
2030 or earlier
0.6%
2031
0.8%
2032
10%
2033
17%
2034
22%
2035
8%
2036
3%
2037
1.5%
2038
1.5%
2039
1.5%
2040
29%
Will not happen by the end of 2040
Currently, one is planned to start building in 2026, and operation in 2033.
This will resolve to the first year in which a non-experimental, grid-scale reactor will be providing power (over 100 MWe) to the national grid for at least a week continuously.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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