Will pure electric vehicles be viable in cold weather by December 31st, 2024?
10
45
210
2025
72%
chance

Resolves as per my judgment. If reliable news sources, trade publications, or Consumer's Reports generally to agree that EVs are viable in the cold, this resolves YES.

Burden of proof for this market is on Team Yes.

Feel free to include links which support your position.

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In Finland EV shares bypassed gasoline cars, EVs are sold and used even above the arctic circle. My ID.3 has been just fine at -15°C, don’t se why it wouldn’t be even in colder. Most sold are Tesla and VW I think but also Hyundai, MB, Kia, … by my experience an EV bypasses a gasoline car in cold weather in comfort and usability. Esp. efficient cabin preheating is great.

If you buy a car for cold conditions and long distances, get one with battery preheating. It saves time on quick chargers. (Most newer ones does have it incl. all Teslas, I don’t but my long distance travel in winter is random and non-professional so I can wait that extra 15 min on my first quick charge.)

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-range-loss-cold-weather-temperatures-tesla-ford-2022-12
This article says 15% drop in range for the Tesla Model Y. Doesn't seem too bad.

They are already viable, have been since Model S. People thinking otherwise haven't tried or are of bad faith, just like when people said smartphones were not viable vs cellphones because their battery does not last long enough :)

@Cypc So for context, I’m looking at getting an EV as an RV. EVs seem to be as or more reliable than gas models, but I have grave concerns about them losing half of their range in the cold. I don’t want my entire home on the road stuck somewhere because it got chilly. :)

Electric vehicles sales accounted for almost 90% of new car sales in Norway over the past two years (that includes PHEVs which are mostly operated as electric vehicles in Norway, but it's almost 80% even if you're only counting BEVs).

Doesn't that suggest that EVs have already been proven to be viable in cold weather?

@SimonGrayson it doesn't because everyone in Europe uses public transit and cars are just a status marker used for few minute trips.

@DiJekw Everyone in Europe uses public transport? I live in Europe and I've visited most other European countries and that's news to me!
It's true that a lot more people use public transport in Europe (especially in the big cities) but there are tens of millions of Europeans who are fully reliant on their cars. Some of those people live in Norway and use EVs in cold weather.
To be honest, this is why I'm not planning on betting on this market. It's very clear that the answer to the question being asked is YES (EVs have already proven themselves to be viable in very cold weather in Finland, Sweden and Iceland as well as just Norway) but I'm being asked to guess whether the market resolver's subjective opinion will line up with reality!

@SimonGrayson an ev able to travel across Europe in winter will never exist.

I see no reason that would happen. With lithium depletion and adoption of zinc or phosphor batteries it will get worse.