Will there be wonders in the sky by 2050?
38
357
730
2049
62%
chance

Wonders in the sky and men fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world.

Examples that could resolve this market as "YES":

  • Big impact on the Moon that is shocking to naked eye observers

  • An exceptionally bright comet visible during the day, at minimum matching the Great Comet of 1744 (magnitude −7) with striking tail

  • Supernova no dimmer than SN 1006 (-7.5 mag)

  • Satellite constellation similar to Starlink trains, but order of magnitude more striking

  • A big space station visible to the naked eye with angular diameter larger than the moon

  • Perhaps some extreme northern lights (if even physically possible) visible on all latitudes, turning night into day, etc.

  • etc.

Should be seen from multiple continents; a bright meteor will not normally count.

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predicts YES

I constantly think about this question

Does artificial stuff like induced auroras via nuclear explosions in space count?

@mariopasquato as long as they fit the criterion for auroras, multiple continents, etc. I will be super strict with auroras and bolides since I don’t want anything remotely ordinary to count.

@mariopasquato The explosion itself in insufficient because it is too localised geographically. However in combination with, per Wikipedia, "auroras [...] observed in the detonation area, as well as in the southern conjugate region on the other side of the equator from the detonation" I think it would count if the auroras in the conjugated region were noticeable to unsuspecting observers.

Two such explosions in different places within a short time interval would count by themselves.

Would Tunguska count?

@BTE Borderline case .. only if it was seen from multiple continents as an extraordinarily bright bolide (definitely brighter than the Chelyabinsk 2013 meteor - I will not resolve for a regular bolide) before impacting .. which I don't think was the case.

I see Tunguska was accompanied by ice/dust clouds visible over Europe, so depends on whether those were striking to a naked eye observer. Combination of the bolide, impact, and the clouds could just have been enough to cross the threshold.

A necessary criterion is that it has to be a striking sight to unsuspecting observers on multiple continents.