Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a "cure for aging."
+20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.
Animal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).
If longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is "cured," resolution follows expert/public consensus.
Aim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.
Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.
If scientists/doctors are split, resolution will follow the balance of credible expert views.
Aim is to reflect a reasonable read of the world in 2050, not technicalities.
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@Bayesian not a troll lol, just a fly by on a market I saw LO's on and I wasn't sure if there was more appetite, apparently there is! Sorry if I damaged something important
Hmmm maybe? I sense that there's a hazard in "markets I'm confident in, but have outrageous ratios and people who are smarter than me are willing to put lots of play money against me very quickly if I bid them down"
Like, I feel like I could lose a lot here lol
That said, put the limit orders up and I'll chomp them up if I'm feeling it, and once diversify a bit more so people don't nag me about Kelly criterion. Lots of my bets seem to be different ways of asking (AGI when)
@Odoacre that's a big one. The criterion are a bit vague and I have to put lots of faith in shared common definition
Large limit at 25 for anyone who wants to buy if down
@JimHays hey Jim, if you are cashing out to donate, you can get a loan from manifold instead and don't have to go through the trouble of selling positions.
@JimHays yeah, it's not well communicated that this is an option. Still it might be better to go forward with it for what's left.
@Odoacre Thanks for the heads up, I really wish that had been better advertised, I was mostly planning to quit manifold over the change
@Bayesian "exist in a form not subject to (the same) age-related diseases" implies the possibility of "exist in a form subject to (different) age-related diseases", no?