By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
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Does doom count?

No

opened a Ṁ850 YES at 25% order

Large limit at 25 for anyone who wants to buy if down

@JimHays I would if I could

@JimHays hey Jim, if you are cashing out to donate, you can get a loan from manifold instead and don't have to go through the trouble of selling positions.

@Odoacre Hmm… I’ve already nuked a lot of my best positions

@JimHays yeah, it's not well communicated that this is an option. Still it might be better to go forward with it for what's left.

@Odoacre Thanks for the heads up, I really wish that had been better advertised, I was mostly planning to quit manifold over the change

@JimHays you can get the loan, donate and then quit. it's easier than selling everything

@JimHays Better odds for you on the other market.

Some arb here:

@Daniel_MC only a 3-4% chance of him living to 120 in this market.

Is it considered cured if all humans are dead or otherwise exist in a form not subject to (the same) age-related diseases?

no, yes

@Bayesian you're saying aging is cured if we still die of other age related diseases?

I'm saying it's not considered cured if all humans are dead, but it is considered cured if humans exist in a form not subject to aging

(^my opinion of what the title should be interpreted as)

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 22% order

@Bayesian "exist in a form not subject to (the same) age-related diseases" implies the possibility of "exist in a form subject to (different) age-related diseases", no?

good point, i rephrased it in a way that was accurate

How can this be resolved at closing time? What if there's a supposed cure but then it later turns out that the patient still dies eventually?

@benjaminIkuta we'll know it when we see it

bought Ṁ350 YES

@BenjaminIkuta I wonder what your AGI timelines are, and how you think AGI will affect aging research?

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 20% order

@Nikola well, if Yud is right mana won't matter anyway. Otherwise, curing aging is hard.

@BenjaminIkuta If we had a million full-time scientists working on curing it, how long do you think it would take?

@BenjaminIkuta What evidence is there that curing aging is hard, other than that it simply hasn't been done yet?

AGI was supposed to be hard, and then within a year we went from toy chatbots to a machine that has an IQ of 101 and claims that it's conscious.

Like every other problem, once the amount of computing power needed to cure all disease is close, medicine will go from primitive to complete cures within a year.

@SteveSokolowski for AGI, we know that intelligence is possible. Because of 2nd law we know that curing aging is very hard / impossible to do completely.