Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024?
63
232
1k
2025
66%
chance

Will a meteorite physically harm someone or damage property on Earth at any point during 2024?

Examples include breaking multiple windows in an area, collapsing or partially collapsing any buildings, putting holes in roofs or walls, causing structural fires, damaging the electric grid or other critical infrastructure, causing barotrauma injuries, causing serious burns, permanent hearing or vision loss, causing an automobile accident or directly colliding with a car or plane in a way that causes damage, causing a tsunami which causes damage to someone or their property, killing or severely wounding a farm animal, destroying crops or cropland over a significant area, causing a food shortage or measurable drop in temperature associated with crop failure or cold-related deaths, causing local or global firestorms that affect the economy or quality of life of people in an obvious way, causing a city to be evacuated or abandoned, or killing any number of persons.

Explicitly not included are damage to meteorite-specific equipment incurred in their normal operating process (i.e. a sensor flash-blinded by a meteorite, damage to equipment in space, herein defined as being above Earth's Karman line, and the effects of non-rational mass hysteria over meteorites that are not a threat to that individual or their property.

Can be a ground impact, secondary projectile from a meteorite impact, airburst, impact against an aircraft, etc. Airborne slag from industrial explosions, stone projectiles from volcanic eruptions, or damage caused by human-made spacecraft are not included.

Resolves YES if there are credible reports of damages to human health or property besides the listed exceptions incurred from meteorite impact or atmospheric entry during 2024 as occurred most notably in Russia during 2013 and 1908, but also occurred in the US with confirmation in 2023 though with much less damage.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/experts-confirm-rock-punched-house-meteorite

as well as in 1954 with both injury and property damage:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Elizabeth_Fowler_Hodges

As well as on quite a few other occasions.

Resolves NO if there are no reports of such damage, or the reports are not credible, or the damage is covered under a listed exception, or the damage did not occur during 2024, or if the damage has no relation to the fall of the meteorite, or if the damage isn't severe enough to meaningfully inconvenience anyone (any penetrating damaging a structure is considered inconvenient automatically).

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@SabrinaCaine Here are my counts of ones with property damage by year:

2023: 2
2022: 1 or 2 depending on whether a dented driveway counts
2021: 2
2020: 3 or 4 depending on whether a roof tile counts
2019: 1 or 2 depending on whether road damage counts
2018: 2
2017: 0
2016: 0

If 1 of the 3 I'm unsure of count, that's 12 in 8 years. Chance of an event in a year if distributed Poisson is 1-e^-1.5 = 78%.

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