
This question will resolve as YES if a major world war involving at least 3 of the world's 5 most powerful military nations (USA, Russia, China, UK, and France) breaks out and results in the loss of at least 1 million lives before the end of 2050. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
For the purpose of this question, a "major world war" is defined as a conflict in which multiple countries engage in sustained combat operations on a global scale, involving ground, sea, and air forces. The conflict must also last for a significant period of time, with major casualties on both sides. This definition excludes smaller-scale conflicts, regional skirmishes, or civil wars that do not involve the participation of multiple major military powers.
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Note, both manifold and metaculus have this in the mid 20's currently: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef-293b30c295af?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1