Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
38
240
730
2050
43%
chance

This question will resolve as YES if a major world war involving at least 3 of the world's 5 most powerful military nations (USA, Russia, China, UK, and France) breaks out and results in the loss of at least 1 million lives before the end of 2050. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

For the purpose of this question, a "major world war" is defined as a conflict in which multiple countries engage in sustained combat operations on a global scale, involving ground, sea, and air forces. The conflict must also last for a significant period of time, with major casualties on both sides. This definition excludes smaller-scale conflicts, regional skirmishes, or civil wars that do not involve the participation of multiple major military powers.

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Do we need to have a major power in each side of the war? Or for example if NATO enters a war against e.g. Iran, does that count?

By "major casualties on both sides" we mean 1M at least in each side?

bought Ṁ5 of NO
predicts NO

@RobertCousineau although, this market does have looser criteria than them.