When will Hubble tension be resolved?
24
150
แน€1.2k
2025
12%
In 2024
33%
In 2025 or earlier
40%
In 2026 or earlier
42%
In 2027 or earlier
52%
In 2028 or earlier
61%
In 2029 or earlier
68%
In 2030 or earlier

"Hubble tension" in cosmology refers to a disagreement between different methods used to estimate the Hubble constant, i.e. the rate of expansion of the universe. The observations of the velocities of the nearby galaxies show the value of roughly 73 (km/s)/Mpc, while the measurements based on the cosmic microwave background converge to 67.7 (km/s)/Mpc.

Several explanations for Hubble tension have been proposed, including the expansion rate being variable and various observational biases. However as of the early 2024 there is no scientific consensus even about which explanation is the most likely.

New instruments such as JWST and Euclid space telescope are actively gathering new data that could shed some light on this problem.

The market will resolve to YES when Wikipedia articles such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble's_law#Hubble_tension will start referring to "Hubble tension" as a past rather than present problem. If there's any controversy in Wikipedia, I will resolve the market to YES if popular science channels like https://www.youtube.com/@DrBecky, https://www.youtube.com/@pbsspacetime and https://www.youtube.com/@sixtysymbols will all refer to Hubble tension as "solved".

Before that, each answer for a specific period of time will be resolved to NO once the period it refers to is over.

Since the resolution criteria for this market are somewhat subjective, I will not bet on this market.

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A new claims just appeared that Hubble Tension might be solved by re-calibrating the distance ladder for nearby galaxies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKmPJmaeP8A

Right now it's been just an announcement at a conference, but it sounds like if this is published, it could potentially resolve this question.