If he comes to power, will Donald Trump Make America Great Again?
8
45
αΉ€170
2099
13%
chance

The market will resolve to the letter.

The market resolves N/A if Donald Trump dies before coming to power.

"Coming to power" means Donald Trump being inaugurated for the second term as president of the USA, or gaining at least the same amount of control over the government by other means.

"Losing power" means that neither Trump nor any of his children are in control of the government (excluding purely temporary and trivial pauses, like when the vice-president takes over while the president is undergoing medical treatment). The "Any of his children" clause means that the market remains open if Donald Trump establishes a ruling dynasty.

The market resolves YES, if any of the following conditions is satisfied while Trump or one of his children is in power:

  • the Gallup "General Mood" poll stays above 60% for three consecutive months;

  • the USA leads and wins a war against a country or coalition controlling territory inhabited by at least 50 million people. The result of the war will be judged by what is shown (and supported by consensus of editors) in the infobox of the relevant Wikipedia article.

The market resolves NO if:

  • "losing power" occurs without any of the above conditions being satisfied.

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