Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election?
12
52
820
2032
19%
chance

Resolves YES if states controlling at least 270 electoral votes have adopted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, regardless of legal challenges, by the 2032 presidential election day. Resolves NO otherwise.

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Note that this not directly comparable to the 2024 and 2028 markets. Those markets will resolve PROB if there is partial progress.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Tbh, my bet is more a hedge against my happiness than a true prediction

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