Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

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Ṁ14k

resolved Nov 6

Resolved as

19%

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The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia. These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact ) On election day 2024, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to: (the number of votes controlled at resolution time minus the number of votes at market open (195)) divided by (the number of votes required to activate the compact minus the number of votes at market open (195)). This effectively calculates the progress made towards activation, such that moderate progress is still calculated and rewarded.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#NaPoVoInterCo

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opened a Ṁ200 YES at 19% order

Anyone want to cash out at 19%? I bought not understanding. This will resolve to 18.67% and we are just waiting.

sold Ṁ40 NO

This should have just been yes/no. Very confusing.

Can we get this resolved early? There is no legislation passing between now and November 5th. @wasabipesto

James Bakeropened aṀ500YES at 16% order

Maine brings us to 18.67%

predicted NO

For future people, a quick way to check what this would currently resolve to today:
Go to the Wikipedia page and find the number next to "enacted" e.g. it's 205 after Minnesota joined.
Then just do (enacted - 195) / 75.
That's how it's 13.3% with Minnesota.
Maybe that was obvious, but it was helpful to remember the denominator is always 75 every time I come back to this market.

Minnesota just joined, this resolves 13.3% if nothing else changes

predicted NO

See the 2028 version of this question here: https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-the-national-popular-vote-inte-74c41fb4a2c2

As an example for resolution criteria, if Michigan joins the compact and nothing else changes, the resolution would be (210-195)/(270-195)=20%.

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