Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]
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Ṁ14kresolved Nov 6
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The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia. These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
On election day 2024, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to: (the number of votes controlled at resolution time minus the number of votes at market open (195)) divided by (the number of votes required to activate the compact minus the number of votes at market open (195)). This effectively calculates the progress made towards activation, such that moderate progress is still calculated and rewarded.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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This should have just been yes/no. Very confusing.
Can we get this resolved early? There is no legislation passing between now and November 5th. @wasabipesto
For future people, a quick way to check what this would currently resolve to today:
Go to the Wikipedia page and find the number next to "enacted" e.g. it's 205 after Minnesota joined.
Then just do (enacted - 195) / 75.
That's how it's 13.3% with Minnesota.
Maybe that was obvious, but it was helpful to remember the denominator is always 75 every time I come back to this market.
Minnesota just joined, this resolves 13.3% if nothing else changes
See the 2028 version of this question here: https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-the-national-popular-vote-inte-74c41fb4a2c2
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