Will the 28th amendment of the US Constitution be ratified by 2030?
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2030
10%
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Resolves YES if the 34th state ratifies an amendment that was passed by the Congress, meeting the 2/3 requirement, by the end of 2029. Resolves NO if not.

Aug 1, 5:54pm: There are currently 27 amendments https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution, the last ratified in 1992.

US Politics
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It is standard to include a time limit on ratification. Sometimes states ratify after the time limit anyway to try to make a point. How does this market resolve in such a case, if the late ratification pushes an amendment over the 2/3rds threshold?

Note that this arguably already happened with the ERA.

1y

if the 34th state ratifies an amendment that was passed by the Congress, meeting the 2/3 requirement

Shouldn't this be the 38th state to meet the 3/4 requirement?

2y
Related: https://manifold.markets/PaulElliottWilliams/will-there-be-us-constitutional-ref

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