Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?
17%
chance

Resolves YES if a human being steps foot on the moon on or before 11:59pm Eastern US time on December 31, 2025.

Resolves NO if no human steps onto the moon by then. Orbits don’t count, nor do landings by a lander but no exiting and stepping onto the surface.

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BruceGrugett avatar
BCGbought Ṁ10 of YES

Artemis 3 plans to land on the moon in 2025.

Mqrius avatar
Marsis predicting NO at 18%
Mqrius avatar
Marsis predicting NO at 21%

Oh right Jackson already posted that

BruceGrugett avatar
BCGis predicting YES at 21%

@Mqrius I hadn't read that before. You are probably right.

JacksonWagner avatar
Jackson Wagneris predicting NO at 24%

This question and https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human are essentially the same question IMO, since neither SpaceX nor any other group has any intention of launching humans in the 2024 mars launch window (they would first need to send an unmanned Starship as a test and to pre-position supplies), and the next mars launch window is not until mid-2026. And nobody is planning to send humans to phobos or etc. So, both questions come down to whether NASA (or China or etc) can pull off a moon landing by 2025. I think this is doubtful: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/amp/