Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
20
แน€886
2031
63%
chance
  • Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2030, at least one human being from any country (other than those who participated in the Apollo missions) has landed on the Moon and then returned safely to Earth. To wit, will any non-American land on the moon and return by the end of 2030?

  • Clarification on 'Successfully Return' and Exclusion of Apollo Missions: For the question to resolve as "Yes," the astronaut(s) must complete a round trip, meaning they must land on the lunar surface and then physically return to Earth alive. This question specifically pertains to missions occurring after the Apollo program, which concluded in the 20th century.

  • Verification Sources: The resolution will be based on official statements from the respective space agency or government, verified news reports, or live coverage.

  • Caveat: If I wind down my activity on Manifold or become seriously ill, may resolve this as N/A early.

  • Clarification: Citizenship counts, birthplace doesn't. So if someone born outside the United States gets to the moon, but is a US citizen, that doesn't count. If someone born in the United States gets to the moon, but is a citizen of another country, that counts. If someone with dual citizenship with the United States and another country gets to the moon, that counts, since this person will be the first citizen of a country other than the United States to get to the moon (this bullet point added 11/28/2023 in response to an excellent question, below, from Chris Billington).

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Will any Moon race related markets get 1000+ traders before 2030?

@BrianCaulfield can you clarify what counts? e.g. Elon Musk is American (has US citizenship), but is not from the United States. Is this question about citizenship, or about birthplace? If citizenship, would someone with dual citizenship (US and another country) count?

@chrisjbillington Great questions.

Citizenship counts, birthplace doesn't.

So if someone born outside the United States gets to the moon, but is a US citizen, that doesn't count.

If someone born in the United States gets to the moon, but is a citizen of another country, that counts.

If someone with dual citizenship with the United States and another country gets to the moon, that counts, since this person will be the first citizen of a country other than the United States to get to the moon.

@BrianCaulfield excellent, thanks for the clarification!