Will NASA land a person on the moon by 2026? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 2, 2026

Artemis 3 Artemis program Space

Will NASA land a person on the moon by 2026?

19%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Similar to https://kalshi.com/events/MOON-25/markets/MOON-25, but for landings before January 1st 2026 rather than 2025

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Jackson Wagnerbought Ṁ25 of NO

Doubtful IMO: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/the-oracle-who-predicted-slss-launch-in-2023-has-thoughts-about-artemis-iii/amp/

I'm assuming Apollo landings don't count?

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ7 YES from 18% to 19%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ50 NO from 20% to 18%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ7 YES from 18% to 20%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ18 NO from 19% to 18%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ10 NO from 20% to 19%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ60 NO from 23% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 23% (cancelled)

Kerr Newman bought Ṁ25 YES from 19% to 24%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ5 YES from 18% to 19%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ26 NO from 19% to 18%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ14 YES from 16% to 19%

arae sold Ṁ19 YES from 20% to 16%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled)

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ22 NO from 22% to 21%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ40 NO from 25% to 22%

Diggelaer bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 25%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

Arbitrage BotBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ19 NO at 23%

Steven sold Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 25%

rockenots bought Ṁ4 YES from 27% to 28%

rockenots bought Ṁ7 YES from 25% to 27%

Steven bought Ṁ30 YES from 17% to 25%

Gary Grenda bought Ṁ30 NO from 19% to 17%

Arbitrage BotBot bought Ṁ37 NO from 21% to 19%

Ivan bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 21%

Jackson Wagner bought Ṁ25 NO from 20% to 18%

zaphod bought Ṁ10 NO from 21% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

yaboi69 bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 24%

Isaac King created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 94%

Isaac King created limit order for Ṁ11 YES at 5%

Isaac King created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 79%

Arbitrage BotBot bought Ṁ36 NO from 24% to 20%

Matt Levonian bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%

Multicore created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 30%

Multicore created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 40%

Multicore created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 50%

Multicore bought Ṁ20 NO from 28% to 25%

arae bought Ṁ25 YES from 18% to 28%

Ivan filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 NO at 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 18% (cancelled)

Ivan bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 19%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ8 NO from 14% to 15%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ4 NO at 14%

Diossley Rodriguez bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

David Furlong bought Ṁ10 NO from 15% to 14%

sbares bought Ṁ50 NO from 22% to 15%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ5 NO from 21% to 22%

Multicore bought Ṁ50 NO from 32% to 21%

paleink bought Ṁ20 NO from 39% to 32%