Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?

Question

The Artemis3 mission is scheduled for 2025.

The chinese space program also is planning to send astronauts to the moon, although they are targeting a later date.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program#Proposed_missions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#Upcoming_missions

By the end of 2026 if a human astronaut has landed on the moon this market will resolve YES.

It does not have to be the artemis mission, but it has to be a new mission (launched after this market was created).

[image]

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (112 traders, as of May 6, 2026).