By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?
20%
chance

Nov 23, 2:43pm: By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) walk on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth? → By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?

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JacksonWagner avatar
Jackson Wagner
is predicting NO at 22%

This question and https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land are essentially the same question IMO, since neither SpaceX nor any other group has any intention of launching humans in the 2024 mars launch window (they would first need to send an unmanned Starship as a test and to pre-position supplies), and the next mars launch window is not until mid-2026. And nobody is planning to send humans to phobos or etc. So, both questions come down to whether NASA (or China or etc) can pull off a moon landing by 2025.

Isaac228c avatar
Isaac
bought Ṁ10 of NO

basically will artemis 3 get delayed? Chance of china e.g. accomplishing this goal is negligible

ManifoldDream avatar

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition