Will Donald Trump complete his second presidential term (2025–2029)?

Question

Completes full term
Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution.
Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term.

Does not complete term
Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.

If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option.

Dies of natural causes or illness

Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.

Dies from assassination or external violence
Trump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President.

Resolution Notes:

Outcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets.

“Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on January 20, 2029.

“Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure.

“Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent).

“Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent).

This market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome.

Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that to resolve as Completes full term, Trump must remain President through January 20, 2029. Leaving office before this date will not count.

Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified potential 'Other' resolution cases:

Suicide

Government collapse

Disappearance without removal

Coma/incapacity without removal

Indeterminate cause of death

Major constitutional changes to term length or limits (would be discussed with holders)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Completes full term, followed by Dies of natural causes or illness and Does not complete term are most likely. See the market for live updates (150 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).