Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?

Question

Background

Greenland is currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark with a population of about 56,000 people. The island has strategic importance due to its location in the Arctic, mineral resources, and potential shipping routes as polar ice melts. In 2019, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in purchasing Greenland, which was firmly rejected by both Danish and Greenlandic officials.

Recent polling shows that approximately 85% of Greenlanders oppose becoming part of the United States, with only 6% in favor and 9% undecided. Greenland's government has consistently stated that the territory is "not for sale and never will be for sale."

The United States maintains a military presence in Greenland at Thule Air Base, established during the Cold War. While the U.S. has historical precedent for territorial acquisitions (Alaska from Russia in 1867, Virgin Islands from Denmark in 1917), no territory has been purchased outright since the Philippines from Spain in the late 19th century.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Greenland officially becomes a U.S. territory, state, or other type of jurisdiction under U.S. sovereignty before the market closes. This would require formal agreements between the relevant governments (U.S., Denmark, and Greenland) and official transfer of sovereignty.

The market will resolve as NO if Greenland does not become part of the United States before the market closes.

Considerations

Greenland has been moving toward greater autonomy from Denmark, with many Greenlanders favoring eventual independence rather than joining another country.

Any change in Greenland's status would likely require approval from the people of Greenland through a referendum, approval from Denmark, and international recognition.

The acquisition of sovereign territory through purchase has become increasingly rare in modern international relations and would face significant diplomatic and legal challenges.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (41 traders, as of Jun 17, 2026).